Session close: Settled at 1.18675, up 22.5 ticks
Fundamentals: The Euro put in a decent session, trading higher on Dollar weakness. This is a critical week for tax-reform as a final bill is projected to hit the President’s desk by Christmas. However, the Dollar lost some muster from the bull camp and this is right in line with our ‘buy the rumor sell the fact’ expectations on tax-reform for the greenback. CPI data for the Eurozone was in line with expectations this morning, coming in at 1.5%. German Business Climate is due tomorrow morning at 3:00 am CT and Eurozone Wages follows at 4:00, we will watch both reads closely. Building Permits and Housing Starts are due in the U.S at 7:30 am CT. Neel Kashkari, the known Fed dissenter speaks tomorrow morning.
Technicals: Prices are running into a pretty thick net of resistance between 1.19 and 1.20. We remain long term Bullish and the bottoming from today’s session could easily gather legs this week. Trend line resistance from the highs aligns with the 1.1998 level and comes just in front of 1.20435; a close out above these levels will ignite a bull leg higher. The 9-day moving average is trading below the 21-day but rounding out and a trade above first resistance will spark this bullish momentum indicator. Line in the sane major three-star support has held tremendously and comes in at 1.1797-1.1799; a move below here will damage the near and intermediate term perspective for the Euro.
Resistance – 1.1891**, 1.1920-1.1931**, 1.1946-1.1949**, 1.1998**, 1.20435***, 1.2180-1.22135****
Support – 1.1797-1.1799***, 1.1742**, 1.16485***
Session close: Settled at .89355, up 2.5 ticks.
Fundamentals: The Yen put in a steady session after a very strong read on Trade Balance data. Despite the strong Exports, the Yen didn’t do much and traders are watching the U.S Dollar as they wait for the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting late Wednesday night. For weeks now, we have documented comments from BoJ council members who fear the law of diminishing returns signaling their support for tightening policy or tapering purchases before the bank reaches its inflation goals. However, BoJ Governor appeared to fade those rumblings earlier this month. For now, we wait until Wednesday.
Technicals: Price action has consolidated since the Dollar began weakening on the heels of the Fed rate hike. For now, this consolidation has remained above the 9-day moving average but must move out above first resistance in order to build for a cross and spark bullish momentum. We remain long term bullish and have been eyeing the last week of December and the first two weeks of January as a high probability setup fundamentally while the technicals seem to be preparing for such as well.
Resistance – .8957**, .8984**, .9060-.9091***, .9164**
Pivot – .8928-.89355
Support – .8916**, .88405**, .8782-.8808***
Session close: Settled at .7665, up 21 ticks
Fundamentals: The Aussie gained nearly 2% last week in its best since July. Minutes from the RBA Meeting are out at 6:30 pm CT tonight and while this should bring some volatility, it is very likely that we see volatility begin to decrease after last week’s slew of data.
Technicals: The technicals have been very constructive off the December 8th low but the 200-day moving average at .7668 remains a key hurdle. However, major three-star resistance stands at .7724-.7728 and remains the key hurdle that the Aussie must get out above in order to negate its recent downtrend.
Resistance – .7668**, .7724-.7728***, .7799**, .7870-.7884***
Support – .7636**, .7572-.7594**, .7498-.7501***, .7390***
Session close: Settled at .7785, up 5.5 ticks
Fundamentals: The Canadian finished last week on a negative note due to a very poor read on Manufacturing Sales. Thursday is the day traders have circled on their calendar, ADP Employment data, CPI and Retail Sales are all due out of Canada. We expect the currency to continue a consolidation pattern into here while remaining at the mercy of U.S Dollar swings due to tax-reform.
Technical: Price action is again testing major three-star support at .7730-.7754, a close below here will open the door for a 1% move to the next key level. Friday’s failure from Thursday’s strength has opened the door for further weakness and only a close back above .7858-.78795 will negate this.
Resistance – .7858-.78795**, .7931-.7959***, .8022**
Support – .7730-.7754***, .7671**, 7550***
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.
Tags: 10 year notes, Aussie dollar, bitcoin futures, Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)., Crude oil, daw trading, es trading, Euro Dollar, futures research, futures trading, grain market, grain trading, market news