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FX market Recap – BrokersEDGE 2-15-18

Euro (March)

Session close: Settled at 1.2530, up 67.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro traded to an overnight high of 1.25335 before retreating on weaker Trade Balance data. U.S data was mixed with a beat on PPI and a miss on Industrial Production. The intraday low of 1.24805 held last night’s reopen and buyers resumed yesterday’s trend pushing the Euro back to session highs upon settlement. ECB heads Mersch, Praet and Lautenshlaeger didn’t move the meter much this morning. We expect a little more from Coeure tomorrow and the trend seems to be pointing to hawkish jargon. The Euro is up 7.5% against the Dollar since November and yes this has raised quite a few eyebrows at the ECB, especially as U.S politics came into the picture. However, all currencies are up sharply against the Dollar, and the Pound/Euro is essentially flat during that time frame and the Euro/Yuan is rangebound since the rally into last August’s high (it did just double bottom and is up 3% on the week to retest that August high). The point here is that though the ECB is concerned about the Euro/USD it is not a dire situation where the Euro has appreciated against other currencies in the same manner. Because of this, we expect to see that hawkish jargon from ECB heads. From the U.S, Building Permits and Housing Starts are due at 7:30 am CT and Michigan Consumer Sentiment is at 9:00.

Technicals: Price action finished the session out above our key resistance at 1.2508-1.2514 which also aligned with a trend line from the highs. This confirms our Bullish Bias and though resistance is above here at the recent highs, we believe the path is paved for our initial target of 1.2608 and above. The longer price action stays above 1.24805-1.2514, the more bullish the tape becomes.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 1.25575-1.25765*, 1.2608***, 1.2695-1.2727***, 1.2919***

Support: 1.24805-1.2514**, 1.2434-1.2436***, 1.23805**, 1.2209-1.2222***, 1.2112-1.21405***, 1.2003***

 

Yen (March)

Session close: Settled .9427, up 70.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Yen continued its bullish run even as equity markets notched a remarkable session with the S&P gaining more than 1%. Asian markets paused their drop today and volume is likely to be light due to the Lunar New Year. The Yen strength is nearing a place where we would not be surprised to see officials from the Bank of Japan verbally intervene. For now, U.S Dollar weakness along with speculation that the BoJ will continue tapering stimulus measures as the year unfolds is driving price action. Data on Foreign Buying is due tonight at 5:50 pm CT.

Technicals: Price action continues to surge, and we have now upped resistance to a major four-star level. This area aligns multiple proprietary indicators as well as a trend line from the 2016 highs. Though we are remain outright Bullish in Bias, traders should capitalize against this level.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: .9480-.9491****

Support: .9279-.9285**, .92015**, .9154-.91665**, .9113**, .9062-.9075***

 

Aussie (March)

Session close: Settled at .7934, up 22 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie punched higher last night on momentum but also a solid read on Employment Change data. Like most U.S Dollar denominated assets, the Aussie retreated through the first half of the day session but quickly bottomed heading into the afternoon as the U.S Dollar weakened once again. RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight at 5:30 pm CT. Motor Vehicle Sales data is due at 6:30 pm CT. Look for U.S data to push the tape tomorrow.

Technicals: Today’s price action played out extremely technical and is a great reminder of how the levels work. Yesterday’s momentum carried over early, but it was key that today’s pullback held .7901-.7915, previous three-star resistance that we now have as a pivot. This helped keep the technicals healthy and build for a secondary push towards .7991 into the weekend.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: .7991**, .8046-.8051***, .8135-.8151****

Pivot – .7901-.7915***

Support – .7868**, .7733-.7757***, .7640**

 

Canadian (March)

Session close: Settled at .8009, up 19.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian had a quiet but solid session seeing strength from a weaker U.S Dollar and a solid read on ADP Nonfarm Employment. This data showed an increase of 10,700 jobs and helps relieve the dismal part-time job loss seen in the government data last week. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri spoke with a balance tone on being cautious on the next rate hike but how inflation pressures are real. Tomorrow we look to Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: The technicals likely held the Canadian back from further gains. Resistance at the .7996-.8006 level has been sticky after a tough month. We remain extremely upbeat on the Canadian in the long-run but a lack of enthusiasm on today’s follow through might signal that value might be had at a better price.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance – .7996-.8006**, .8070**, .81195-.8163***, .8290***, .8524****

Support – .7931-.7949***, .78805**, .7752-.7787***

 

For more information please contact DAW Trading at brokersedge@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

Futures Breaking news – BrokersEDGE 2-2-18

CORN (March)

Yesterday’s Close: March corn futures finished yesterdays session unchanged, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents on the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts on the day.

Fundamentals: Yesterdays export sales came in at 1,850,000 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 1,000,000-1,700,000 metric tons. Corn bulls want to see a continued trend of better than expected exports to encourage additional short covering and new buying interest. The USD has been trading near multiyear lows which has helped revive some global demand. Weather in South America continues to be monitored as some are concerned of potential yield loss in areas of Argentina. Private estimates for the Brazilian crop have been increased from 23.44 mmt to 23.87 mmt.

Technicals: The market has been firming up over the past few weeks and it looks as though that may continue. The bulls must maintain price action above 357 ¼-358 ½ to remain in control. This pocket contains the 100-day moving average, along with a key retracement level. The next level of resistance comes in from 366 ½-369. If the bulls cannot defend support, we expect to see the market trickle back towards 350-352. The RSI (relative strength index) is currently at 69.32; a level we have not seen since we peaked last July.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 366 ½-369****, 373-376***

Support: 357 ¼ -358 ½**, 350-352***, 345-346 ½***

 

SOYBEANS (March)

Yesterday’s Close: March soybeans finished yesterdays session down 12 cents, trading in a range of 18 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts on the day.

Fundamentals: Soybean futures took a turn south yesterday on the back of very disappointing export sales. Weekly export sales came in at 358,900 metric tons, this compares to the estimated range from 600,000-1,200,000 metric tons. On top of the poor exports sales, chances of rain have worked back into the forecast for areas of Argentina that have been relatively dry. There are some seasonals in play that should be encouraging for the bulls. We have recently referenced a May buy, the November buy starts today. If you had bought on February first and sold on the 17th, you would have been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years, with the average gain being about 12 cents.

Technicals: Soybean futures tested and held the first test of 980 on a closing basis yesterday, but the market is under pressure and testing 980 again this morning. This puts the bulls back on their heels as we head towards the open. 971 ¼ is going to be the key line in the sand we are watching for as we round out the week; we like the value at this level on the first test. This represents a key Fibonacci retracement from the June lows to the July highs. The bears want to defend 986 ½-988 ¼ on a closing basis.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 986 ½-988 ¼***, 999-1006***, 1020 ¼-1027****

Pivot: 980

Support: 971 ¾***, 961 ¼-963 ¼****

 

 

WHEAT (March)

Yesterday’s Close: March wheat futures closed ¼ cent lower yesterday, trading in a range of 8 ¼ cents on the day. Funds were estimate buyers of 500 contracts.

Fundamentals: Wheat futures were under pressure to start yesterday morning as weekly export sales came in at 289,100 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 300,000-600,000 metric tons. Weather premium has been the catalyst for encouraging higher prices on the back of fund short covering. The bulls need to see more bad news to continue the rally, neutral or no news will likely invite sellers back into the market. The USD is trading near multiyear lows which has also offered some support to the market.

Technicals: Wheat futures tested and held first support at 442 ¼ yesterday, finishing the day near unchanged. That support level remains a key focus today, another test and close below will likely mark a near term top as we would expect sellers to come back in and press us back towards 429 ¾. On the resistance side of things, the bears must defend 456 ¼-458 ¾. The RSI (relative strength index) has come off of overbought levels and is reading 60.78 this mornings.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 456 ¼-458 ¾***, 472 ¾***

Support: 442 ¼ **, 429 ½***, 410 ½-413 ¼****

 

E-mini S&P (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled a 2822.50

Fundamentals: Equity markets are again under pressure this morning and investors await the release of January’s Nonfarm Payroll Report at 7:30 am CT. The S&P hit our main target at 2798 with an overnight low of 2797. Stocks in Europe are also sliding sharply, the DAX is down more than 1% again today and has lost more than 5% since its peak January 23rd. The Nikkei is down nearly 1%. Amazon is in a planet of its own, trading up about 5% after earnings last night. Apple was up more than 2% but has now gone red in the pre-market. Google is down nearly 4% this morning. The key catalyst in all of this is the rise in Treasury yields, a story we have been discussing for some time now. If you are simply watching the Dollar, you might be missing the story of global growth. The Dollar is unwinding its rally that began in 2014 when the Fed was the only central bank tightening. But just because the Dollar is weakening doesn’t mean the growth story isn’t there. Just yesterday, the Atlanta Fed said it projects first quarter GDP at a whopping 5.4%. Inflation has shown signs of rising and the Fed expects it to reach their 2% target and stabilize there later this year. All of this allowed the Fed to pave the way for four rate hikes this year at their meeting Wednesday. Treasury markets are seeing strong selling, which pushes yields higher as this global tightening gets priced in. Higher yields begin to attract investment out of the equity market and furthermore, costs more money to service. Today’s Nonfarm Payroll will be critical in this story, strong growth in jobs and wages will likely add further pressure to equities in the near term. Expectations come in at 184,000 jobs created and Average Hourly Earnings growth of .3% on the heels of .3% last month while the Unemployment Rate is expected to be stable at 4.1%. As we discussed in the Tradable Events this Week on Sunday, the U6 Unemployment Rate has risen for the last two months to 8.1% and this is a data point to watch.

Technicals: Though are Bias has been Neutral all week, we have been adamant about a few things. The sellers are in control until a move out above first resistance while the immediate downside is exposed with a continued close below 2825.50-2828; yesterday’s settlement was 2822. Our first target to the downside is 2807-2808.50 while our main target is 2798. Lastly, you don’t want to be short and just close your eyes. First resistance yesterday was 2838-2839.75 and this is now second resistance but still the line in the sand as a move out above here will completely neutralize the tape. First resistance now is 2825.50-2828.25 and we maintain that continued close below here is needed to keep the bears in complete control. The 2847.75 level is second resistance and a spot that if taken out could cause a strong move higher. With 2798 being achieved with a low of 2797, the next support level comes in at 2773-2777 while our next major three-star level is 2748.25-2752 and this aligns multiple levels as well as a rising trend line from November. If we see a close below 2798, this level is then in play and should present a spot to go long.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance – 2825.50-2828.25**, 2837.75-2839.75**, 2847.75**, 2858*, 2878.50**, 2887***, 2920***

Pivot – 2807-2808.50

Support – 2798***, 2773-2777**, 2748.25-2752***

 

Crude Oil (March)

Session close: Settled at 65.80

Fundamentals: Crude extended gains from Wednesday’s early low by more than $2.50 to 66.30 overnight. Today is Friday, and Friday’s have been very friendly to the energy complex. Today is also Nonfarm Payroll, a report that should influence the Dollar. Right now, the Dollar is slightly higher on the session and this likely has a small hand in Crude retreating from session highs. Do not underestimate the influence that the weaker Dollar has had in Crude Oil above $60 and in the month of January. If the Dollar recovers firmly from oversold territory, we expect this to become a key catalyst coupled with rising North American production in sparking a correction in Crude.

Technicals: Trading to 66.30, price action has extended near the top end of its recent range. If the tape stays contained today, this could build a lower high than Monday’s peak of 66.46 and the swing high on January 25th of 66.66. Remember, the only major three-star level we have had above $60 is 66.87 and this level has held well so far. Our Bias is now slightly more Bearish than Neutral. Traders do not need to pick a top but if today stays contained with a lower high, we believe the door is wide open for the sellers Sunday night. First key support comes in at 65.29 while a move back below 64.98 should encourage further selling.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance – 66.30-66.46*, 66.87***, 68.43**

Pivot – 65.80-65.95

Support – 65.29**, 64.98**, 64.67**, 63.67-63.70**, 62.78-63.00***

 

Gold (April)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1347.9

Fundamentals: We continue to believe that the long-term picture for Gold is positive. However, we also maintain near-term caution. Since achieving above $1360 our Bias in Gold has been Neutral and we have exuded caution to longs that are pressing their largely profitable position from mid-December. Today’s Nonfarm Payroll report is crucial, and 184,000 jobs are expected to be created. Average Hourly Earnings is expected to grow .3% on the heels of .3% growth last month. Despite the rise in Treasury yields, historically a strong headwind for Gold, the metal has held ground tremendously. What Gold will not be able to ignore is a strengthening Dollar and that is why this report will be key to the near-term trade.

Technicals: A swing high of 1354.3 was achieved yesterday, but the metal struggled to hold above first resistance at 1349.7-1351.4. The near-term technicals look weak due to falling back from the session high. A close above this level today, with Nonfarm in the rear-view mirror, we could imagine becoming bullish again. However, we continue to believe the value is limited until the overcrowded long-position gets cleansed. The market would need to go to major three-star support at 1321.7 in order to begin doing that. Though we can make an argument to begin buying against first key support.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1349.7-1351.4**, 1365-1370***, 1377.8**, 1392.6***, 1432.9**

Support: 1329.1-1331.9**, 1321.7***, 1307.6-1312***

 

Natural Gas (March)

Session close: Settled at 2.856

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s storage report came in at -99 bcf, the lowest drawdown reported since December 14th. Prices have been under pressure since the expiration of the February contract, retreating from a level in which they probably should not have tested to. Now the question is, have prices retreated too much ahead of a weekend and while headlines still warn of chilling temperatures over the next two weeks. Because of this, we would not be surprised to see a consolidation higher ahead of the today’s close.

Technicals: Price action traded sharply below major three-star support at 2.896-2.902 and traded to a low of 2.837. Our next key support level comes in at 2.786-2.81 and this has kept price action in check. We are neutralizing our Bias slightly ahead of the weekend, but the bears will continue to have a clear edge if price action stays below 2.896-2.902.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance – 2.981-2.998**, 3.035-3.051**, 3.181-3.197***, 3.27*, 3.32**

Pivot – 2.896-2.902***

Support – 2.786-2.81**, 2.693**, 2.53****

 

10-year (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 121’07

Fundamentals: The global growth story is real and along with the Fed being upbeat on inflation and paving the way for four rate hikes this year, the Atlanta Fed now projects first quarter GDP at 5.4%. The 10-year yield is pushing 2.8% and on the other side of the coin, this is now weighing on equity markets and if the selling in equities picks up any more than this, we believe the 10-year will see strong waves of buying. Today’s Nonfarm Payroll is key for the trade and we have a strong focus on Average Hourly Earnings growth and the U6 Unemployment Rate that has dropped for two consecutive months.

Technicals: We continue to have a contrarian perspective in this market and it has not paid off in a very tough week. Price action has stayed suppressed below 121’17-121’18 which keeps the sellers in clear control. However, watch for a close below 2798 in the E-mini S&P to bring support ahead of the weekend. The session low comes in at 121’02 and we really don’t want to see this taken out.,

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance – 121’25**, 121’31-122’015***, 122’15-122’175**, 122’26-122’29***, 123’10**

Pivot – 121’17-121’18

Support – 121’02**, 119’20-120****

 

For more information please contact DAW Trading at brokersedge@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

 

Cattle Commentary: Cattle futures finished the session mostly higher, though well off of the highs for fats and feeders. April live cattle finished the session up .275 at 124.90, trading in a range of 1.325. March feeder cattle finished the session up .225 at 146.95, trading in a range of 3.325. Friday afternoon we got some new news across the wires in the form of cash trade and the Cattle on Feed report. The bulk of cash trade was reported at 127 and 200 dressed, this was up 4 and 5 respectively. Majority of market participants we spoke with were expecting to see 126. Fridays Cattle on Feed report showed the following:

 

Cattle on Feed: 108

Range of Estimates: 107.2-108.1

Average Estimate:107.7

 

Placements: 101

Range of Estimates: 93.3-100.3

Average Estimates: 96.9

 

Marketing’s: 99

Range of Estimate: 97.9-100.3

Average Estimate: 98.6

 

This afternoons boxed beef prices were up slightly.

PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select

Current Cutout Values: / 206.83 / 201.83

Change from prior day: / .06 / .51

Choice/Select spread: / 5.00

 

Cattle Technicals

Live Cattle (April)

April live cattle futures finished gaped higher to start the week, marking the high print in the opening minutes as price action fizzled out for the remainder of the day. The overall price action for the session was neutral but we continue to believe there is opportunity at the top end of the range to consider selling, whether that be reducing long exposure or legging in on shorts. If the market fails to break out above resistance in the coming sessions, it is likely that we see long liquidation take prices back towards first support which comes in from 122.475-122.75. If the bulls do achieve a breakout, the next resistance pocket comes in from 127.20-127.35.

Resistance: 125.20-125.35***, 127.20-127.35***, 130.10****

Support:122.475-122.75***, 120.20-120.625****, 117.90-118.70****

 

Feeder Cattle (March)

March feeder cattle saw some volatility on the open, as we saw a “surprise” gap higher with prices testing our “last line of defense” from 149.40-150.00. The market was not able to hold water at those levels and that led to some pressure for the remainder of the day. If that market fails to gain traction here in the first half of the week, we could see selling pressure come back into the market and press us towards first significant support which we have marked as 143.25-143.50. As with the fat cattle, we continue to feel that this is an opportunity to consider the sell side regardless if you are bullish or bearish (reduce longs/initiate shorts).

Resistance: 147.75-148.00***, 149.40-150.00***, 153.95*****

Support:145.80-146.45***, 143.25-143.50****, 142.10-142.60**, 139.85-140.125***

 

Lean Hog Commentary & Technicals (April)

April lean hogs finished today’s session down .50 at 73.30, trading in a range of .90. Supply side fundamentals continue to lend hand to keeping a lid on a significant rally. Technical resistance from 76.225-76.40 held last week and will continue to be the significant pocket to keep an eye on. On the support side, the market is making a run towards the 100-day moving average which comes in at 72.80. A break and conviction close below opens the door to accelerated selling pressure which could press prices towards the bottom end of the range which we see coming in from 70.625-71.15. This pocket represents The November lows and the 200-day moving average.

Resistance: 74.00-74.375**, 76.225-76.40**, 77.25****

Support: 72.80**, 70.625-71.15***, 67.75-68.00****

 

Euro (March)

Session close: Settled at 1.24265, down 33.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro began working lower late Friday afternoon and continued on that path through today’s session. This slow and steady drip eludes to traders taking positions off the table at the beginning of a pivotal week that has the State of the Union Tuesday night, Fed decision Wednesday and Nonfarm Payroll Friday. U.S PCE Index data was in line with expectations today. Tomorrow morning brings Eurozone GDP at 4:00 am CT along German CPI. U.S Case Shiller is due at 8:00 am CT and Consumer Confidence at 9:00. Both fundamentally and technically, the Euro has more upside in the long-term.; we believe pullbacks are buying opportunities However, traders do want to manage risk properly through what is expected to be a volatile week. Do not forget to read out Tradable Events this Week.

Technicals: Price action is attempting to relieve itself from overbought conditions. The 14-day RSI reached 75 last week. The CoT showed traders expanded the already record long position in the Euro by 25% in the week ending January 23rd. The Dollar Index is bouncing from the most oversold on the weekly since November 2007. To the downside we have first key support at 1.2349-1.23685 and today’s session low of 1.2374 was kept in check by this level. Though we remain long-term bullish, we would rather be buyers closer to major three-star support at 1.2209-1.22135.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance – 1.2514**, 1.2608***

Pivot – 1.2434-1.2436***

Support – 1.2349-1.23685**, 1.2307*, .2209-1.22135***

 

Yen (March)

Session close: Settled at .92035, down 23 ticks

Fundamentals: The Yen retreated slightly today, but given recent volatility and today’s Dollar strength, this was a solid session for the currency. Still, we are concerned that Wednesday’s Fed meeting can bring a hawkish surprise and near-term pressure for the Yen. Furthermore, the Yen is attempting diverge from falling Treasury prices but if the Treasuries are lower because of the Fed, the Yen is likely to take similar heat. In a week that will center around U.S political and monetary policy, there are some key data points out of Japan to watch. Household Income and jobs data is due tonight at 5:30 pm CT. BoJ Core CPI is due out at 11:00 pm CT. Tomorrow night is going to be a volatile one for reasons more than just the State of the Union with Japanese Industrial Production data along with Chinese Manufacturing.

Technicals: The Yen has finally picked itself up out of the gutter but faces a tremendous hurdle this week in maintaining its recent gains. Price action is showing signs of fatigue just below major three-star resistance. This level will be extremely critical and a close out above here on the week should spark the next bull leg higher. While we see first key support at .9164, we would rather be buyers against major three-star at .9089-.91035.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance – .9237-.9255***, .93215**, .9480***

Support – .9164**, .9089-.91035***, .9043*, .8998-.9006**, .8946-.8957**

 

Aussie (March)

Session close: Settled at .8101, down 18 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie has gained more than 8% since its December bottom and as the year unfolds there is room for further gains. For now, we believe it should be most vulnerable to a strengthening Dollar and domestic data this week. First, last week’s CPI read out of its neighboring New Zealand missed widely and we will be watching tomorrow nights Aussie CPI read that will be accompanied by Chinese Manufacturing data (China is Australia’s top trade partner). Tonight, there is Business Confidence data at 6:30 pm CT.

Technicals: Price action traded to a high of .8135 on Friday, the highest level since May 2015 before paring gains. Pullbacks in the Aussie over the last two months of been extremely shallow and the trade is overdue for a sharp move. The weekly RSI is testing the level in which it hit last September, when it traded at this price, this is the highest since 2011. We believe that if the Aussie can chew through major three-star support at the .8033-.8037, the door will open for it to trade down to .7874-.7881.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance – .8100-.8125***, .8151*

Support – .8033-.8037***, .7998**, .7962**, .7874-7881***

 

Canadian (March)

Session close: Settled at .81195, down 2 ticks.

Fundamentals: The Canadian stayed in a very tight range through the session as NAFTA talks wrapped up with a positive vibe. We look to a busy week of U.S political and monetary policy to be the key catalyst in price action but at the same time traders need to keep an eye on Chinese Manufacturing tomorrow night and major Canadian data points Wednesday; monthly GDP data and Raw Materials Price Index. We are very bullish the Canadian in the long-term and hope to see it about 1% lower this week on the U.S Dollar consolidating higher from oversold territory to present a strong buy opportunity, rather than down on negative news out of Canada.

Technicals: Price action is holding strong against major three-star resistance at .81005-.81195. One concern technically, is trend line resistance from July 2014. However, like the Aussie did against a similar trend line, we believe the Canadian can get out above here in due time and this can ultimately spark a move to .8524. We would like to see price action dip to .7931-.7949 in order to present the aforementioned buying opportunity.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance – .81005-.81195***, .8163**, .8290***, .8524****

Support – .80505-.8057**, .7996**, .7931-.7949***, .7903**, .7752-.7787***

 

 

For more information please contact DAW Trading at brokersedge@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

 

E-mini S&P

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2853.50

Fundamentals: The 10-year Treasury yield notched above 2.7% yesterday, a level in which many have called for to spark volatility in equity markets. Our biggest concern with rising yields is the velocity in which they move; a slow grind may not be as troublesome to equity markets while fast spikes higher are more likely to cause pressures. This move in yields is coming from all around the globe. The German 10-year bund yield traded to the highest since November 2015 at just about .7%. While the Chinese 10-year has been around 4% since November, it spiked firmly though that benchmark over the last week and a half. Treasury prices are the inverse of yields and last night the 10-year Treasury extended losses early in the session, this was enough to push the S&P through a key support level and encourage further selling ahead of the busiest of weeks. With more than 100 S&P companies reporting earnings this week, the State of the Union tonight, a Fed policy decision tomorrow and Nonfarm Payroll Friday, it only makes sense for investors to take something off the table at these levels. Eurozone GDP data was in line with expectations this morning while minor components that accompanied the read missed the mark. German CPI data is due at 7:00 am CT. U.S Case Shiller is due at 8:00 am CT and Consumer Confidence follows at 9:00. Lets also not forget Chinese Manufacturing this evening during the State of the Union.

Technicals: Price action tested into our key support at 2851.75-2852.50 early yesterday with a low of 2854.50 and bounced firmly to 2868.25; between the 50% and .618 but also a level in which the sell-volume had come in at earlier on the open. After finishing the session back to this support level, it broke below here last night, and we believe this opens the door for selling down to 2807-2808.50 and the major three-star level we now have below there at 2798. Last night’s low of 2831 held the crucial level at 2825.50-2828, one in which we had as three-star support last week. However, now that the trend line is taken out, we view this level as less strong. This is now a trading environment and can be played from both sides, the bears have an edge this morning though sellers are better off positioning closer 2847.75-2849.25; a move above here will neutralize this immediate-term weakness while a close above 2854.50-2854.75 will help the bulls regain an upper-hand. Only a close back above 2858-2860.50 will turn this immediate-term bullish once again.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance – 2847.75-2849.25**, 2854.50-2854.75**, 2858-2860**, 2878.50**, 2887***, 2920***

Support – 2825.50-2828**, 2807-2808.50**, 2798***

 

Crude Oil (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 65.56

Fundamentals: Crude Oil saw pressure early in the overnight with a strengthening Dollar and ahead of inventories coming into the picture. The Dollar move is so far short-lived as it has turned south this morning, bringing support. Early estimates on the EIA inventory read are for a build of 100,000 barrels. However, API is after the bell today and last week’s API came in at +4.755 mb while the EIA read was a draw and more in line with expectations. It would not be surprising to see API give a bullish read this week relative to expectations. This could ultimately set up for a sell opportunity upon the EIA release. The Dollar will remain in play all session and through this evening on the State of the Union, a strengthening Dollar puts pressure on commodities while continued weakness brings support. Chinese Manufacturing is due at 7:00 pm CT.

Technicals: Price action settled at first support yesterday, this will be a key level that the bears must keep the tape suppressed below. We have maintained a slight Bearish Bias and a lower high below 66.66 and our major three-star level at 66.87 has opened the door for the sellers. Ultimately, as we said yesterday, we need to see a close back below previous highs and support at 64.72-64.89 in order to neutralize this recent push higher. Furthermore, to turn truly Bearish we need to see a close below the $63 area; the market is extremely overbought, and we believe the crowded long position will begin to bail at this level.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance – 66.87***, 68.43**

Pivot – 65.45-65.61

Support – 64.72-64.89**, 64.26**, 63.70*, 62.78-63.00***

 

Gold (April)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1345.1

Fundamentals: This consolidation lower in Gold is less about long-term fundamentals and more about near-term positioning due to data, the Fed and the pendulum effect. First with the data, Case Shiller is due at 8:00 am CT while Consumer Confidence is due at 9:00; this is just the beginning for the week as we have ISM and Nonfarm Payroll. Second, the Fed and the pendulum effect are more intertwined. Gold bottomed after a dovish Fed hike in December that had two dissenters. Since, inflation has been stable but not much higher and they are not expected to hike tomorrow. However, as we have discussed at length in many of our articles, there is a great unwind going in the Dollar and Euro trade as well as the Dollar against many of its other pairs; the Fed is not the only central bank tightening. Additionally, it is firmly believed that the White House does not want a strong Dollar. This pendulum has swung too far, at least in the very near term. Ultimately, the likelihood of a hawkish Fed statement is increased and for that reason we are cautious Gold in the near-term. Lower price action should bring a tremendous buy opportunity.

Technicals: Yesterday we said we could not make the case to buy Gold until support at 1329.1-1331.9 is tested. Last night’s low was 1337.5 before the Dollar began weakening once again. With key data points today and the State of the Union tonight which are both expected to swing markets, we remain cautious and await a more attractive area to reposition.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1349.7-1351.4**, 1365-1370***, 1377.8**, 1392.6***, 1432.9**

Support: 1329.1-1331.9**, 1321.7***, 1307.6-1312***

 

Natural Gas (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3.167, 13 cents from its session low

Fundamentals: Natural Gas is surely making it difficult on both the bears and the bulls. The bears are having it a little tougher though. After gapping lower Sunday night, price action worked higher through the second half of yesterday to nearly finish in the green. Storage drawdown expectations from last week, reported this Thursday have increased slightly but are not enough to justify such a reversal. The February contract expired and fell off the board yesterday, for now we chalk this up to repositioning and will be watching today’s settlement closely on a technical basis.

Technical: Price action is above major three-star resistance at 3.181-3.197 and this begins to Neutralize our Bias slightly. Today’s settlement will be key, and we must see it fall back below here. There is minor resistance at the 3.27 level but 3.32 will be in play on a close out above major three-star resistance. Price action could not get below first key support yesterday, but a failure to do so should not have sparked such a strong reversal.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 3.27*, 3.32**

Pivot: 3.181-3.197***

Support: 3.035-3.054**, 2.943***, 2.865**, 2.786**

 

10-year (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 121’26

Fundamentals: Treasuries around the world have been under pressure. The 10-year achieved 2.7% yesterday and essentially again last night on the Asian open as it traded to a new low before reversing. However, as we discussed in the S&P section, many are calling for this level to put pressure on equity markets; debt will cost more to service and older and more cautious investors will begin to find bonds attractive as yields rise with equity valuations at these levels. The week is just beginning, and volatility will be here to stay through Nonfarm Payroll Friday. Case Shiller is due at 8:00 am CT and Consumer Confidence is at 9:00. German CPI just fell short of expectations and this could work to support Treasuries if we don’t get hot reads from the U.S, especially if equity markets remain weak.

Technicals: Support is thin in this area but building at the 121’17-121’18 area. Price action managed to claw back a close above our 121’25 first support level yesterday. We have maintained a Bullish Bias for now but as a reminder this is a contrarian play as we believe prices and sentiment are exacerbated at this level in the near term. Since early last week, we have said that we like positioning long through last week’s central bank meetings and this week’s Fed.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance – 122’15-122’175**, 122’26-122’29***, 123’10**

Pivot – 121’31-122’015

Support –121’25**, 121’17-121’18**, 119’20-120****

 

For more information please contact DAW Trading at brokersedge@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

  1. Powell/Yellen

The next chapter of the Federal Reserve comes into focus this week with Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. The Dollar Index has been under pressure since Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes. Despite a December hike expected, the take away from last week was a very gradual pace of raising rates moving forward. This will be the first time that we get insight into how Powell plans on running the Fed and the Dollar trade will be in our crosshairs. Current Fed Chair Yellen follows him on Wednesday and testifies before congress on the state of the U.S economy. If we get more of the same from the two of them, weakness in the Dollar could have just started.

  1. OPEC

The all-awaited OPEC meeting is this Thursday and Crude Oil is trading at the highest level in two years. Traders have piled into Crude, front-running the expected extension of production cuts. The wild card remains Russia, but they did say on Friday that they are in support of an extension. By all means, if no extension is reached on Thursday, Crude will sell off quickly. We have been very bullish ahead of this meeting and believe that this is shaping up to be a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ event. The Commitment of Traders is due out on Monday because of the holiday. Last week’s read showed the largest net-long position since February. We believe this position has continued to expand, but if everyone has already bought, we will need more bullish news out of this meeting to attract fresh buying. We will look for an opportunity to position short this week.

  1. Inflation data

On Thursday we get the October PCE Price Index read. Lagging inflation is working to slow down the pace at which the Fed looks to hike rates next year. Janet Yellen’s comments last week and Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes expressed a growing concern that rate hikes have directly halted inflation. Furthermore, we began to see a tectonic shift in central bank expectations this spring; the Fed is now not the only central bank tightening policy. Also on Thursday is CPI data out of the Eurozone. These dueling reads should already add to a volatile Euro-USD trade.

  1. All-time highs

The S&P finished the week at a new all-time high. With strong Black Friday sales as well as expectations for Cyber Monday coupled with accommodative central bank policy and likeliness of tax-reform the Santa Clause rally could have already begun. Some could argue that last year’s Santa Clause rally still hasn’t stopped. With the S&P settling the week above resistance at 2594.50-2596 this opens the door to our next upside target of 2633.

  1. Commitment of Traders

For the second week in a row, we must wait until Monday to see the latest CoT report. It is important to remember that the report only takes in data through Tuesday. Despite the delay, we watch this report very closely as it helps dictate our trade ideas. Right now, we are watching the positioning on Crude Oil, Japanese Yen and Corn the most closely.

  1. Chinese Manufacturing

The November Manufacturing PMI read is due out Wednesday evening. Last week was a volatile one for major Chinese indices and their 10-year treasury retreated below 4% on Friday but remains at the highest level in almost four years. We will be watching the base metals closely on this number. In particular, Palladium which has been trading at the highest level since the first quarter of 2001. Price action in Palladium rejected $1000 once again on Friday. A miss for the second month in a row on Chinese Manufacturing could begin to put some pressure on the base metal camp.

 

For more information please contact DAW Trading at brokersedge@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

 

Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterday’s close: Gained 2.5 on the session finishing at 2582

Fundamentals: As traders monitor the ECB panel this morning with Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda and Carney we also await key inflation data with PPI due at 7:30 am CT. Data out of the Europe was overall mixed this morning with German Sentiment missing the mark but the Eurozone read coming in stronger. GDP was in line with expectations and around 1:30 am CT the Euro traded through major three-star resistance and to the highest level since the ECB meeting on October 26th. Tax-reform remains at the forefront and yesterday Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the House and Senate are “very close”. Equity markets keyed off this to work back to unchanged on the session, however, we credit the technical ground work against first support as the driver. All year traders have believed tax-reform will get done, and in all likeliness, it will. The market is more worried about corporate taxes on the surface of this plan and not delaying such. St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks at 7:15 am CT and new Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 12:05. Chinese data last night marginally missed the mark but ultimately this has gone unnoticed. GDP is due out of Japan this evening.

Technicals: Price action traded to a low of 2570 yesterday and against that of Friday’s. First key support at 2573.50-2574.25 was breached but only for a short period of time just ahead of the NYSE open. Ultimately, the intraday session did not trade below support. Still, resistance at the 2583-2585.75 is also holding strong and the door is still open for the bear camp. If you have traded against this level, you are doing just fine and it is more of a matter of how much you are looking for or maybe you have traded against this level more than once now. We remain Neutral/Bearish but keep in mind we also want to find a place to become Bullish once again.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance – 2583-2585.75**. 2594.50-2596**, 2600*, 2616**

Support – 2573.50-2574.25**, 2561.75-2562.25**, 2555*, 2539.25-2543***

 

Crude Oil (December)

Yesterday’s close: Gained 2 cents on the session but did run stops below first support.

Fundamentals: The IEA released their monthly Oil Market Report this morning and cut Crude Oil demand growth for 2017 and 2018. Importantly, they noted the recent rise in prices and question the fundamental backdrop on how the “market balance in 2018 does not look as tight as some would like”. The comments and data noticeably contradicts that of yesterday from OPEC. Price action has begun to weaken, and we maintain that the key this week, more than these reports and most likely more than the EIA (barring a tremendous outlier), is December option expiration.

Technicals: Price action is trading heavily but clinging to first support. As we discussed yesterday, a move to $55 would hurt the most amount of people and this for us is reason enough to believe that it is in the cards. However, once option expiration is over tomorrow we should see renewed buying to finish out the week and into the December contract expiration. A selloff due to option expiration will be a great way to cleanse the over-extended Commitment of Traders which reported the largest long position and net-long position since the week of March 7th where a sparked a 12.5% selloff ensued. We turned Neutral/Bearish yesterday and will remain such as traders must be nimble in this volatility.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance – 57.15**, 57.92**, 58.97***

Support – 56.41-56.51**, 55.02-55.25***, 54.45-54.54**, 53.76-53.90**, 52.86-53.11***

 

Gold (December)

Yesterday’s close: Gained 4.7 on the session to finish at 1278.9

Fundamentals: Gold is fighting against optimism on tax-reform and global growth. This morning the Dollar Index is down .25% but Gold is down .5%. Renewed and revived growth out of Europe has driven yields higher and ultimately Gold can only fight so hard without an outside catalyst. Last week, President Trump’s Asian trip attracted geopolitical speculation but since the tape has suffered. Friday’s volume was the largest since September 21st, the day after the Fed hiked rates. Much of this was due to a large sell order but these large orders can also dictate sentiment for a few sessions. A key read on inflation is due out with PPI at 7:30 am CT this morning; a miss here would reinvigorate the bull camp. St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks ahead of it at 7:15 am CT. The ECB panel continues through the morning. New Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at 12:05 pm CT and the week is only getting started.

Technicals: We discussed the significance of major four-star support and though yesterday’s tape began to consolidate, renewed weakness is pressing into this level once again. We have now begun to Neutralize our bias. We remain long term bullish but must also be aware of the market pulse. We are now Neutral/Bullish and if PPI comes in better than expected, we would suggest that longs still holding on get out of the way for a few rounds.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance – 1280.5-1281.6**, 1291.3-1292.9**, 1298.4-1300**, 1308.4-1312.6**

Support – 1262.8-1270.6***, 1243.6*

 

Natural Gas (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled down at 3.167

Fundamentals: The colder weather is here and New York is now flirting with freezing temperatures. Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase until there is further proof that stockpiles were drawn down and to what degree after price action got a little ahead of itself last week.

Technicals: Price action is under pressure this morning trading losing as much as 8 cents overnight. First key support is holding at 3.08 but we expect the consolidation to continue and the chart is technically damaged in the very immediate term (a session or two). We now look for key support at 3.035-3.051 to play a big role in fixing the tape off a consolidation. If the bears take it below gap support at 2.984-2.998 then we have a near term failure on our hands.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance – 3.179-3.198***, 3.22**, 3.297-3.353***, 3.55**, 3.67**

Support – 3.08**, 3.035-3.051** 2.984-2.998***, 2.847-2.861**, 2.753-2.7565***, 2.486-2.522****

10-Year (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 124’20

Fundamentals: Data out of Europe didn’t surprise much this morning and was for the most part in-line with expectations. Furthermore, neither has the ECB panel as central bank heads have more or less discussed support for their actions. Prices have sold off ahead of U.S (and global) inflation data this week which begins today with PPI at 7:30 am CT. Though the action could be attributed more to the likeliness that tax-reform gets figured out, today’s PPI data and tomorrow’s CPI remain a clear wildcard and poor reads here will reinvigorate a weak tape. However, a surprise beat will work this market below 124 and retest the lows from earlier this year.

Technicals: Price action has clung to the 124’19 level though it traded to a low of 124’16 overnight before consolidating higher ahead of PPI. The technicals will be at the mercy of the data over the next two sessions. However, this is where the settlements become key in the momentum trade.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance – 124’31-125’015**, 125’19**, 125’255**, 126’01**, 126’15***

Support – 124’19**, 124’00**, 122’22 – 122’29***

 

For more information please contact DAW Trading at brokersedge@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

 Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

 

NYSE FANG+ Index

From theice.com

The NYSE FANG+ Index

 

INDEX COMPOSITION: BENCHMARKING TODAY’S TECH GIANTS

The NYSE FANG+ index includes 10 highly liquid stocks that represent the top innovators across today’s tech and internet/media companies. The index’s underlying composition is equally weighted across all stocks, providing a unique performance benchmark that allows for a more value-driven approach to investing. While the performance of indices weighted by market capitalization can be dominated by a few of the largest stocks, an equal-weighting allows for a more diversified and represented portfolio. NYSE FANG+ is one of the most highly correlated indices to technology and related stocks.

UNDERLYING STOCKS IN NYSE FANG+*

Facebook
(FB)

Apple
(AAPL)

Amazon
(AMZN)

Netflix
(NFLX)

Google
(GOOGL)

Alibaba
(BABA)

Baidu
(BIDU)

NVIDIA
(NVDA)

Tesla
(TSLA)

Twitter
(TWTR)

Real-time index calculations are available to help you benchmark the core group of stocks included in the index, and official open and close prices are published daily on the NYSE Global Index Feed.

REVIEW THE FULL INDEX METHODOLOGY HERE

TRADING NYSE FANG+ INDEX FUTURES ON ICE: THE BENEFITS

NYSE FANG+ futures, which will begin trading on ICE Futures U.S. on November 8, 2017, subject to regulatory review, provide a concentrated hedging mechanism for asset managers, proprietary trading firms, institutional traders and retail investors with technology exposure. The contract features:

Low-cost exposure to tech sector

One of the most highly correlated indices to tech and related stocks

Hedging mechanism to quickly increase or decrease tech exposure in equities portfolios

A disciplined methodology that will dictate the evolution of underlying securities

NYSE FANG+ INDEX PERFORMANCE COMPARISON 
(Hypothetical performance using backtested data)

Based on back-tested performance data, the combination of stocks in the NYSE FANG+ Index have returned a 28.44% annualized total return from September 19, 2014 to September 15, 2017, as compared to 14.89% for the NASDAQ 100®, 9.86% for the S&P 500® and 16.80% for the S&P 500® Information Technology Index.

Calculations are based on the price return of each index. NYSE FANG+ is an equal-weighted index, whereas the other indices represented in the chart above are weighted by market capitalization.

Description

NYSE FANG+™ is a new index providing exposure to a select group of highly-traded growth stocks of next generation technology and tech-enabled companies. The futures contract on the index is designed to offer the ability to gain or reduce exposure to this key group of growth stocks in a capital efficient manner.

Market Specifications

TRADING SCREEN PRODUCT NAME

FANG+ Index Futures

TRADING SCREEN HUB NAME

ICUS

SYMBOL

FNG

CONTRACT SIZE

$50 times the NYSE FANG+ Index

CONTRACT MONTHS

4 contracts in the March, June, September and December cycle

PRICE QUOTATION

Index points, to two decimal places

TICK SIZE

.10 Index points, equal to $5.00 per contract; calendar spread trades may be executed at .05 index point increments.
(Block Trades can be done at .01 Index points)

LAST TRADING DAY

Third Friday of the expiration month. Trading in the expiring contract ceases at 9:30 am NY time on Last Trading Day.

DAILY SETTLEMENT

16:14 to 16:15 NY time

FINAL SETTLEMENT

Cash settlement to a special calculation of the NYSE FANG+ Index (Price Return version) based on the opening prices of the component stocks on the Last Trading Day for the contract.

POSITION ACCOUNTABILITY

Position Accountability Level – 20,000 lots in any month.

POSITION LIMIT

Position Limit – 100,000 lots in all months combined.

DAILY PRICE LIMIT

None.

BLOCK TRADES

Yes, 20 lot Block Minimum Quantity

EFPS AND EFSS

Yes.

IPL LEVELS

IPL Amount: 2000 Index Points
Recalc Time and Hold Period: 5 seconds

NCR AND RL

NCR 3.00; RL 7.50; CSLOR 2.00 Index Points

EXCHANGE FEES

Screen Trades: $1.00 per side
Block and EFRP Trades: $1.50 per side

MIC CODE

IFUS

CLEARING VENUES

ICUS

For more information please contact DAW Trading at info@dawtradingdiv.com or at 877-329-0006 and visit us at http://dawtradingdiv.com/brokers-edge/

 Disclaimer:

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.