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  • CME Featured Reports

    • Equities: Are TOPIX and Nikkei Still Cheap?
      by Erik Norland on January 22, 2018 at 11:54 pm

      Three months ago, we discussed the impact of Abenomics on Japan’s economy.   Japan’s economy, generally speaking, has been doing well.  While there is plenty to quibble about, since Prime Minister Shinzō Abe assumed power in late 2012 Japan has had its best sustained growth since the 1980s.  Unemployment […]

    • Why Has Inflation Been So Subdued?
      by Bluford Putnam on January 19, 2018 at 12:00 pm

      With unemployment low and inflation expectations creeping higher, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may hike rates two or three times in 2018, and Treasury bond yields might drift a little higher.  The big caveat is that this consensus scenario will only happen if inflation actually follows the script and starts to rise.  Dr. Janet Yellen […]

    • Is Resurgent Dr. Copper About to Relapse?
      by Erik Norland on January 17, 2018 at 6:49 pm

      If one looks at the price of copper (Figure 1) and the implied volatility on its options (Figure 2), one might think that the metal – often referred to as Dr. Copper for its reputation as a leading prognosticator of economic health because of its widespread applications -- has returned to robust health after a bad spell from 2011 to 2015. […]

    • Five Reasons Event Risk to take Center Stage in 2018
      by Bluford Putnam on January 12, 2018 at 12:00 pm

      The year 2017 saw the juxtaposition of heightened policy uncertainty with relatively complacent markets and low volatility, especially in equities.  Much of the policy uncertainty may find some answers in 2018.  It is decision time for NAFTA and Brexit.  Elections will be in the spotlight, too.  Italy in March, Mexico in July, […]

  • Agriculture

    • Seven of the Most Noteworthy Trading Days of 2016
      by Bluford Putnam on January 4, 2017 at 6:28 pm

      With the big changes of 2016 still fresh in our memories, we take a look back at the year’s seven most interesting trading days to review what we may have learned (or not) about managing risk. The U.S. elections and UK’s Brexit referendum highlighted the need to manage political event risk, especially since opinion polls proved […]

    • Ag Economy Barometer Overview
      by CME Group on May 5, 2016 at 3:29 pm

      Learn more about the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, a nationwide measure of the health of the U.S. agricultural economy. […]

    • Using Options During Phase Transitions
      by CME Group on November 17, 2015 at 11:10 pm

      Chief Economist Blu Putnam appears on Futures Institute to discuss trading options during phase transitions.&nbs […]

    • Sources of Volatility in Q3 2015
      by Bluford Putnam on July 16, 2015 at 3:09 pm

      CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam talks about the potential sources of volatility facing markets in the third quarter of 2015, including the Federal Reserve's impending decision on the first rate hike in nearly a decade, the Greek equation in Europe, questions over China's sustained economic growth, and El Nino and its potential impact on […]

  • Energy

    • Oil: Economic Landscape of Saudi Arabia
      by Erik Norland on July 21, 2017 at 2:15 pm

      Most fundamental indicators are flashing bearish signals for oil.  1) Inventories are rising on a seasonally-adjusted basis. 2) Oil production continues to rise in Brazil, Kazakhstan, Libya and the United States, largely offsetting production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – which is itself showing […]

    • Seven of the Most Noteworthy Trading Days of 2016
      by Bluford Putnam on January 4, 2017 at 6:28 pm

      With the big changes of 2016 still fresh in our memories, we take a look back at the year’s seven most interesting trading days to review what we may have learned (or not) about managing risk. The U.S. elections and UK’s Brexit referendum highlighted the need to manage political event risk, especially since opinion polls proved […]

    • Brexit: Event Risk Set to Rise Over Next Two Years
      by Bluford Putnam on June 24, 2016 at 5:47 pm

      Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union sets the stage for an increase in event risk over the next two years as negotiations get underway after the Conservative Party picks a new leader to replace outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron, a proponent of the "Remain" campaign in the run-up to the referendum. […]

    • Using Options During Phase Transitions
      by CME Group on November 17, 2015 at 11:10 pm

      Chief Economist Blu Putnam appears on Futures Institute to discuss trading options during phase transitions.&nbs […]

  • Financials

    • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
      by CME Group on January 23, 2018 at 7:03 pm

      This survey tracks business conditions in the Richmond Fed's manufacturing sector. The headline index is a composite of the new orders, shipments, and employment indexes. […]

    • Redbook
      by CME Group on January 23, 2018 at 7:03 pm

      A weekly measure of comparable store sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. Redbook tracks week-to-week change, month-to-date change, and year-on-year change with the latter the most closely watched reading. The report offers early indications on ex-auto ex-gas retail sales. […]

    • International Trade
      by CME Group on January 23, 2018 at 7:03 pm

      International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It is available nationally by export, import and trade balance. Merchandise trade is available by export, import and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories and for more than one hundred principal Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) […]

    • 2-Yr Note Auction
      by CME Group on January 23, 2018 at 6:28 pm

      Treasury notes are sold at regularly scheduled public auctions. The competitive bids at these auctions determine the interest rate paid on each Treasury note issue. A group of securities dealers, known as primary dealers, are authorized and obligated to submit competitive tenders at Treasury auctions. Dealers can hold the bills, resell the bills […]

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