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Session close: Finished down 1.5 ticks.
Fundamentals: It was not Nonfarm Payroll on Friday that put pressure on the Euro, but the strongest ISM Non-Manufacturing read in 12 years. This morning the overall Services PMI data out of the Eurozone was better than expected along with PPI, but every region missed their mark. Ultimately, a weak tape from Friday carried over in through today in what was a quiet session. We have a lot on the docket tomorrow with Industrial Production data out of Germany is due at 1:00 am CT tomorrow, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 3:00 am, Retail Sales is due at 4:00 and the EU Finance Ministers also meet around that time. Traders should also look to volatility from U.S JOLTs Job Openings at 7:30 am CT. Janet Yellen also speaks at 1:30 pm CT.
Technicals: The Euro initially spiked after Nonfarm Payroll to a high of 1.1722 and that extension ultimately spent little time above first resistance. Price action is now holding first support at 1.1622-1.1639 and the closing low from October 27th, the lowest since July. We remain long term bearish the Dollar, but traders need to be cautious against key support in the near term; a close below here will open the door to further selling.
Resistance – 1.1705***, 1.1736*, 1.17595-1.1767*, 1.1837**, 1.1860-1.1879**, 1.1921-1.1933***,
Support – 1.1622-1.1639**, 1.1604*, 1.1481-1.15***
Session close: Settled up 30.5 ticks
Fundamentals: The Yen sold off after the release of the BoJ Minutes and bottomed around the time that Kuroda spoke; he noted that the global economy is in good shape, but uncertainties remain and that there is still distance to achieve the 2% target. Risk assets were on demand today with Gold and treasuries both trading higher along with the Yen despite the S&P trading and closing at a new all-time high.
Technicals: Price action ran stops below first support last night before reversing sharply from the lowest level since March. The session’s range was nearly one point. We neutralized our long-term bullish stance last week on weak technicals, however, today’s price action reinvigorates our bullishness. We will continue to watch the crucial .8800-.8828 level on a closing basis and want to see price action maintain a close above here in order to stay bullish in the near-term.
Resistance – .8868**, .8894**, .8980**, .9028-.9029**, 9057***
Support – .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***
Session close: Settled up 39 ticks.
Fundamentals: We are seeing short covering ahead of tonight’s RBA meeting and an announcement due at 9:30 pm CT. Traders must stay nimble as we await more news. Higher commodity prices today also helped keep a firmer footing on the trade.
Technicals: Price action double bottomed against Friday’s low early last night at .7635. This is right above major three-star support and this level is also a key factor in us bringing keeping a bullish bias in the face of weakness last week. The market played off this level tremendously through today’s session, but the key will be a close above .7717-.7725 following tonight’s RBA; this will neutralize the weakness and put the bulls in the driver’s seat with momentum.
Resistance – .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***
Pivot – .7673
Support -.7622***, .7550**, .7390****
Session close: Finished the session up 26 ticks.
Fundamentals: The Fundamental picture has seemingly taken a sharp turn since last week’s GDP data with Friday’s employment report showing much strong gains than expected and todays Ivey PMI coming in well above expectations as well. The Bank of Canada’s Poloz speaks tomorrow at 11:55 am CT.
Technicals: We became outright bullish the Canadian on Friday due to a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Price action faces major three-star resistance at .7918-.7939, and among other levels brings the 100-day moving average and a trend line from the September highs; a close out above here will be very bullish. Major three-star support now comes in at .7745-.7790 and a close below here will signal a failure.
Resistance – .7856**, .7918-.7939*** .8035-.8046**, .8293****
Support – .7745-.7790***, .7671**, 7550***
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