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Session close: Finished down 20.5 ticks at 1.1612
Fundamentals: Weakness in the Euro has persisted since the ECB and the second wave began Friday. The currency saw further pressure early this morning after German Industrial Production came in very poorly. Eurozone Retail Sales was a bright spot, but technical selling took precedent and price action traded below 1.16 and to the lowest level since July 20th. Fed Chair Yellen spoke this afternoon and didn’t say anything of note to the currency trade. Hopes on tax-reform have added strength to the Dollar though the Index struggled to hold session highs.
Technicals: The Euro traded to a session low of 1.15785 but parred more than half its losses before the end of the session. To us, this is not a convincing close below key support at 1.1622-1.1639. We would be lying to ourselves by denying relevant weakness, so traders must remain nimble and ultimately it would be prudent to wait until a close back above 1.1639 before repositioning bullishly for the long haul. A continued close below this level will give the bears the opportunity to remain in the driver’s seat.
Resistance – 1.1655*, 1.1671**, 1.1705-1.1722***, 1.1772**, 1.1837-1.1850**, 1.1921-1.1933***
Pivot – 1.1622-1.1639**
Support – 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***
Session close: Settled down 7.5 ticks.
Fundamentals: There was not a lot of new news today on the Yen front. President Trump continues his Asian trip and is pushing for a nuclear deal against North Korea, this along with progress on tax-reform has continued to support the Dollar. Weakness in the Yen has persisted due to the Bank of Japan’s commitment to easing.
Technicals: Today was somewhat of a disappointment for the bull camp as price action failed to follow through on yesterday’s reversal, however, price action did manage to finish on the top end of its daily range. After a swift move below major three-star support at the .8800-.8828 level, price action has continued to cling to this level without completely failing nor closing back out above it. We must continue to watch this level on a closing basis for a nod to the bull or bear camp.
Resistance – .8868**, .8894**, .8980**, .9028-.9029**, 9057***
Support – .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***
Session close: Finished unchanged
Fundamentals: The RBA left rates unchanged last night which was expected. However, the Aussie has been under pressure since a knee jerk reaction higher on the announcement. Traders brace for Chinese Trade Balance overnight.
Technicals: Major three-star resistance continues to stand strong and last night’s spike following the RBA decision was rejected by this level with a high of .7698. The session low comes in at .7624, three ticks above the October 27th low and a retest to major three-star support at .7622. The bears have a clear edge right now but must achieve a close below support to open the door for further waves of selling.
Resistance – .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***
Pivot – .7673
Support – .7622***, .7550**, .7390****
Session close: Lost 40 ticks on the session.
Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Governor Poloz remained neutral on rates this afternoon by signaling the central bank is monitoring wage gains and inflation and how the economy is adjusting to back to back hikes. The extremely negative data has recently begun to show a light at the end of the tunnel and if this continues, the Canadian will prove to be a strong buy at this level as a hike could come into the picture in the first quarter of next year.
Technicals: This was a disappointing session for the bull camp, but price action has seemingly stabilized against major three-star support. A reversal into tomorrow should prove to pick up steam and help solidify a longer-term bottom. If price action gets out above .7918-.7939 we believe all the longs that jumped ship over the last month will be chasing back in and create a strong bullish leg higher. However, buyers must be nimble on a close below major three-star support.
Resistance – .7856**, .7918-.7939*** .8035-.8046**, .8293****
Support – .7745-.7790***, .7671**, 7550***
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