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Session close: Settled at .94935, up 50 ticks
Fundamentals: The Yen notched its second healthy session in a row amidst equity market volatility; the S&P finished down about 2% and the NQ down almost 3%. Price action lifted as soon as stocks took a turn for the worse and continued volatility will keep a bid under the Yen in this busy week. Tankan data out of Japan last night was mixed and not all that bad while Chinese Manufacturing missed. There is a 10-year JGB Auction tonight at 10:45 pm CT.
Technicals: We continue to be Bullish the Yen as price action has been constructive all year; major three-star support at .9410-.9433 held for the sake of argument (we have now adjusted it). Equity market volatility is a bonus as we continue to expect further weakness in the U.S Dollar. First resistance at .9498-.9505 kept today’s rally in check. Further resistance comes in at .9530-.95415 but ultimately, we look at these levels as minor hurdles in what is a long-term uptrend.
Resistance: 9498-.9504**, .9530-95415**, .96145***, .9729***
Support: .9393-.9410***, .9382**, .9310-.9342***
Session close: Settled at .7653 down 23 ticks
Fundamentals: The Aussie again was a casualty to the risk-off trade in equity markets. However, the currency did hold well considering the miss on China Manufacturing last night and the fact that China is back in the news with a reinvigorated trade war with the U.S. Tonight though is all about the Reserve Bank of Australia. They are expected to keep interest rates steady at 1.5% however, the statement will be crucial; growth has been slowing and a global trade ware is becoming a bigger and bigger hurdle. However, how much of this is priced in?
Technicals: We finished last week Neutral the Aussie and we are no different after today. Price action has stayed below major three-star support at .7674-.7691. This level is now a pivot as we will watch it closely. The path is technically open to .7501 but we remain bearish the U.S Dollar.
Resistance: .7757-.7784***, .7848**, .7902-.7921**, .7986***, .8035**
Session close: Settled at .7740, down 22 ticks
Fundamentals: The risk-off trade routed markets today but the Canadian again held ground fairly well. There seems to be positive sentiment tied to NAFTA that is likely doing work to buoy the currency. Considering that the S&P lost 2% and Crude was down nearly $2, the Canadian put in a solid session and is primed to move higher upon a risk-on move. We remain bearish the U.S Dollar and this is getting us excited about the Canadian for when that right time comes. The economic calendar is quiet until Trade Balance data Thursday and jobs Friday.
Technicals: Price action continues to flirt with major three-star resistance at .7771 but has struggled to clearly close out above this level. Still, the pivot at .7745 has done a great job in acting as support. We have kept these two levels classified as such because, frankly, the market should have and has felt as if it would retreat. The fact that it has not, is becoming bullish.
Resistance: .7771***, .7840**, 7904-.7908***
Support: .77075**, .7633**, .7550***
LEJ8: -1.375 at 112.375, trading in a range of 2.60
LEM8: -1.625 at 105.50, trading in a range of 3.05
GFJ8: -1.725 at 131.60, trading in a range of 3.00
GFK8: -1.850 at 132.175, trading in a range of 3.10
Cattle Commentary: Cattle futures came out of the gate this morning looking like they had something to prove; that spark quickly faded as sellers stepped in to take advantage of the swift move higher. Last week’s price action was the continuation of the previous months price action and today was much of the same. The bears are in full control, but a meaningful relief rally is past due (see technical below). If you have no skin in the game at this point or want to play for that snap back (short term), we would look to the options market. There was some cash trade Friday, 592 at 119. Cash trade this week is expected to breach 120 again, this compares to the bulk of last week’s trade which came in from 120-122 live and 190-194 dressed. If grain markets continue to rally this could provide a headwind for the market. Outside market volatility continues to linger which would be another headwind, the S&P was down roughly 2.5% for the day.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 219.80 / 210.50
Change from prior day: / (1.24) / 1.81
Choice/Select spread: / 9.30
Live Cattle (June)
It was the same story, just another day; fat cattle futures continued lower, pressing prices to levels not seen since last April. In fact, there is a gap on the chart going back to the week of April 3rd of last year that comes in from 99.75-100.125. This will be the first support pocket in this week’s trade, a break and close below opens the door to the 96 handle. The market is grossly oversold with the RSI (relative strength index) at 16.12; this is the 10th session that we have been in “oversold” conditions. A snap back would be healthy for the market, but bulls should error on the side of caution as it will likely be sold in to. First technical resistance comes in from 104.50-104.70, this would be a start for bulls to repair chart damage but there is still a lot to be done before the tides change.
Resistance:102.35-102.575**, 106.00-106.45**, 109.15***
Support: 99.75-100.125****, 96.40-96.75****
Feeder Cattle (May)
May feeder cattle saw follow through pressure from last week’s trade as funds add to their newly established net short position. In the weekend edition of our Livestock Roundup we mentioned 131.50 being the next line in the sand for us, that was tested and held by a thread with today’s low coming in at 131.60. This is uncharted territory so what lies below there is a big question mark. Using the continuous charts, we would look at 129.05 being the next line in the sand. The RSI (relative strength index) is currently at 25.83, which is “oversold” but is not as oversold as we were just two weeks ago. We do not advise trying to catch a falling knife, bottoms are a process not a point. We may see a “rip your face off rally” but those will likely be for relief and may not be sustainable.
Resistance: 134-134.15**, 139.275-140.25***, 143.15-143.50****
Support: 131.25-131.50****, 128.90-129.05***
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)
Last week’s Hog and Pigs report was in line with expectations. All Hogs came in at 103.1%, Kept for Breeding at 101.7%, and Kept for market at 103.3%. That rally was short covering ahead of this report and the lack of surprises invited the sellers back in. Lean hog futures gaped lower and didn’t look back. June futures finished the day limit down at 73.55, trading in a range of 1.80. We would expect to see this lead to a retest of 72.95. There will be a bottom at some point and value to the buy side, but we remain in the bear camp until we can see the dust settle a bit more; the bottom is a process not a point. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money sold 5,028 futures, putting their net long at just 590; keep in mind that this data is only through the 27th and does not include the relief rally.
Resistance: 75.475**, 77.875-78.175***, 79.40-80.10****
Support: 72.95-73.225*** 70.50****, 66.00****
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