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Session close: Settled at 1.1866 and lost 37 ticks
Fundamentals: The Euro gapped lower on the open last night after the Senate passed their tax bill in the early hours of Saturday morning. The Senate and the House still must come together in order to get a bill on the President’s desk before the Christmas deadline, but this is likely. Brexit talks between the EU and UK stalled but will resume later this week. It was a quiet day of data, but the week will pick up with U.S Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. Spanish Unemployment came in much better than expected. Service PMIs are due out tomorrow along with an EU Finance Ministers Meeting. Out of the U.S is ISM Non-Manufacturing at 9:00 am CT.
Technicals: Strong resistance at the 1.1942 level has proved to hold. Friday’s session tested this level twice before losing steam into the close. Last night’s gap moved price action below first support at 1.1866-1.18815 but this area remains key as this is the gap that the market must close back above. Key support comes in at 1.1824-1.1837, this aligns the .382 and the 100-day moving average, if the uptrend is to continue, the Euro must maintain a settlement above here.
Resistance – 1.18875-1.1903**, 1.1942**, 1.19975-1.2019***, 1.2154-1.2180****
Support – 1.1824-1.1837**, 1.1728-1.1730***, 1.1672**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***
Session close: Settled down about half a penny at .8884 but trimmed losses before the electronic close.
Fundamentals: After trading to a new swing low this morning the Yen began to show life in the second half of the session. With equity markets gapping higher Sunday night on the tax news, the Yen was the biggest loser gapping lower by half a penny. The tables turned before the end of the session with the Yen cutting losses in half and the S&P trading through Friday’s settlement which was more than 1% from the today’s high. On another note we are noticing more traction in the media and articles supporting our belief that the Bank of Japan could surprise traders in the early part of next year. We may not call them hawkish but a step in the direction of less dovish would spark the huge rally we have been calling for in the long-run in the Yen. There is a 10-year JGB auction tonight at 9:45 pm CT
Technicals: Friday’s electronic close was essentially our .8915 level and this will be a key upside resistance heading into Tuesday’s session as this constitutes covering the gap lower last night and a new retracement at .8913-.8917; a close above here is essential in neutralizing recent weakness. Between here and major three-star resistance are several key hurdles still.
Resistance – .8913-.8917**, .8930-.8939**, .8960**, .8982**, .9018-.9045***, .9119**, .9321-.9359****
Pivot – .8884
Support – .8845-.89475*, .8801**, .8730***
Session close: Lost 17 ticks on the session and settled at .7593
Fundamentals: Today was a consolidation for the Aussie tonight’s RBA meeting and monetary policy announcement at 9:30 pm CT. It doesn’t stop there though in this big week for the Aussie; last night’s data was mixed, New Home Sales is due this evening and Retail Sales at 6:30 pm CT. GDP is Tuesday night, Trade data Wednesday night and Home Loans and China Trade Balance Thursday night. Not to mention U.S Nonfarm Payroll Friday. The RBA is expected to sit tight on their record low rate of 1.5% after growth tended to slow in the fall, but this will be a critical week in interpreting the outcome of this meeting.
Technicals: Today was a true consolidation day ahead of tonight’s RBA. Friday’s price action worked off major-three-star support at .7530-.7550 before the Flynn testifying against Trump news and the spike high on that news blew through R1 and R2 but stalled in front of major three-star resistance at .7645-.7677. Major three-star resistance and support will be the line in the sand on either side during a critical week for the Aussie.
Resistance – .7605-.7607**, .7645-.7677***, .7726-.7755**, .7824**, .7891-.7893***
Support – .7530-.7550***, .7390****
Session close: Settled at .78765 and lost 1.5 ticks
Fundamentals: The Canadian had a monster session on Friday with their Employment Change showing 79,500 jobs created versus expectations of only 10,000. GDP also beat expectations and the market gained more than a penny. Even without weakness in the U.S Dollar the Canadian would have gained at least a penny. Another big week gets underway with Trade Balance data tomorrow at 7:30 am CT a Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and Ivey PMI on Thursday. It would seem that the data out of Canada is starting to turn a corner, the exact corner we have been discussing for the last month.
Technicals: Though major three-star support at .7790-.7803 was taken out for a short period of time last week, line in the sand support and previous lows at .7730-.7745 did hold. Price action is now running into resistance at .7897 but we are targeting major three-star resistance at .7950-.7960 at a minimum on the week and likely ahead of Wednesday’s BoC meeting.
Resistance – .7897**, .7950-.7960***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****
Support – .7858**, .7803**,.7730-.7745***, .7671**, 7550***
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