BrokersEDGE futures newsletter 11-14-17 wrapup ES, Crude Oil, Gold Futures, Natural Gas, 10 Year futures

Euro (December)

Session close: Gained 126 on its strongest session since June 27th to settle above 1.18

Fundamentals: Data this morning confirmed Eurozone growth in the tune of 2.5% for Q3 YoY. The largely hyped ECB panel ultimately was not the catalyst in today’s move but a technical breakout above three-star resistance early this morning got the ball rolling. What drastically extended gains today was comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard that he does not think the Fed should hike in December. He included his pessimism on inflation. Today’s price action gives no sign that PPI data from the U.S came in better than expected across the board. CPI and Retail Sales are due out of the U.S tomorrow at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: This is exactly the type of price action that you want to see on a breakout above a major three-star resistance level. Trend line resistance at 1.1750 was also taken out and tomorrow this line will move lower and align with what is now major three-star support at 1.1714-1.1725. The session high comes in at 1.1826 and faces resistance at the 50-day moving average at 1.1830. It would be rare on the heels of such a strong session to not see some follow through tomorrow. First support comes in at 1.1785-1.1799 and this level encompasses the 100-day moving average.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance – 1.1830**, 1.1866**, 1.1921-1.1934***, 1.1991*, 1.2019**

Support – 1.1785-1.1799*, 1.1714-1.1725***, 1.1622-1.1639**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***


Yen (December)

Session close: Finished up 11.5 ticks on the session

Fundamentals: BoJ Governor Kuroda said earlier today that inflation expectations are beginning to pick up but are “backward looking”. Well, tell us something we don’t know. . . He added that the BoJ will remain strongly accommodative. GDP data is due tonight at 5:50 pm CT and Industrial Production follows at 10:30 pm CT.

Technicals: We believe that the short and net-shot position in the Yen are now at record levels. Dollar weakness must begin to worry these traders especially since the odds of a December rate hike are nearing 100%. We believe the weakening Dollar will be the catalyst that sparks a massive short covering rally in the Yen. Price action has continued to battle against the .8800-.8828 level and the longer it stays above here the more we like the trade.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance – .8868-8879**, .8971-.8980***, .9021-.9045***

Pivot- .8800-.8828***

Support – .8755-.8764**, .8639**, .8427***


Aussie (December)

Session close: Gained 8 ticks on the session

Fundamentals: Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all missed last night. However, the Aussie was already losing ground to finish the session and bottomed early this morning on Dollar weakness. The session saw further support on St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s comments that the Fed should not hike in December. Westpac Consumer Sentiment data is due at 5:30 pm CT. Wage Price Index is due at 6:30 pm CT and traders brace for employment data out of Australia tomorrow night.

Technicals: Price action battled against major three-star support at .7622 throughout the session and it held. Renewed weakness in the Dollar and a hold against key support has brought a slight Bullish bias to couple with what has been Neutral. The high of the week comes in at .7663-.7678 and this aligns with the 200-day moving average; we expect a test to here into tomorrow morning.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance – .7663-.7678**, .7717-.7725***, .7780**, .7872-7902**, .7964**, .8096-.8115***

Support – .7622***, .7550**, .7390****


Canadian (December)

Session close: Lost a tick and a half but finished a quarter from the low.

Fundamentals: The back half of the week will be where the action is for the Canadian. Crude Oil weakness has been offset by Dollar weakness and the Canadian has battled well through a consolidation phase as traders await more news. CPI and Retail Sales out of the U.S along with Crude inventories will play a key role ahead of data out of Canada on Thursday. NAFTA talks are set to resume November 17th and this must be on your radar.

Technicals: Price action dipped through first support today but as we noted last night, we are watching for the settlement to stay above .7851-.7856 rather than a sharp move through today’s session. The consolidation phase will likely continue, and we are not worried as long as it remains gentle.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance –.7920-.7954***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support – .7851-.7856**, .7821*, .7745-.7790***, .7671**, 7550***


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.

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