- Our Clients
- Futures Platforms
- Trading Systems
E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2628.25
Fundamentals: A combination of fears and simple profit taking have put pressure on equity markets around the globe. While the S&P lost nearly .5% yesterday, it sits about 1.5% from Sunday’s all-time high. The NQ did not accelerate selling on yesterday’s session though it remains 3% from its all-time high last week and at the low end of its range. The Russell 2000 small caps are also 3% off their high, though one that came Sunday night. They lost 1% yesterday. U.S markets are lower, and selling hasn’t accelerated domestically in an ugly fashion since yesterday’s close. Asian markets are taking a serious beating; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down 2%. Let’s not forget that China’s Shanghai Composite has shed 4% in just two weeks, since their 10-year yields hit 4%. In Europe, the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 are both down about 1%. In the U.S, the buy the rumor, sell the fact on tax-reform might have come early as yesterday’s price action in the S&P signals that this is more than a sector rotation; yesterday the XLF finished -.5%. However, as many jump to this conclusion because tax-reform is just about all we hear, there are quite a few other catalysts to put pressure on equities around the world. There is a looming government shutdown if Washington cannot agree on a budget by Friday and this comes at a time when the tax legislation has revealed it would add $1 trillion to the national debt in the next decade. Is there another short term scare on the Russian probe, or are investors simply cutting longs because of last week’s shock? The impasse that Brexit talks hit on Monday is beginning to seem a little bigger of a deal than it was made to be then. We have been discussing 4% on the 10-year in China for weeks now, but this is having a lasting effect as officials call for tighter policy and regulation. Let’s throw into the geopolitical mix Jerusalem being acknowledged as the capital of Israel. Last, but surely not least, even though the market barely reacted to North Korea launching a missile last week, it is taking notice to the continued drills that the U.S and South Korea are running as tensions rise. Furthermore, the U.S is pushing for tighter policy on North Korea and needs China to continue to step up. The problem with these theories is that we are not seeing a rise in traditional safe-haven buying, but Bitcoin does continue higher. Ultimately, investors that have seen the 20% and 30% rise in the S&P and NQ that we discussed yesterday, are beginning to take something off the table until we get a little more clarity over the next week.
ADP Payrolls are due today at 7:15 am CT and Nonfarm Productivity data is to follow at 7:30 along with the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting. The data focus is Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll and next week’s Fed rate hike meeting.
Technicals: Yesterday we said that the damage on the chart from Monday has begun to Neutralize our stance and called for a close above 2642-2644 to repair that damage. Price action held this level and rejected resistance at 2650.75-2651.25 before turning sharply lower into the close. Key support at the 2618-2619.25 level is working well to stall the selling into this morning. We have become Neutral in the near term and believe that this market can be traded from both sides using the levels. Trend line support from the November 15th low now aligns with support at the 2618-2619.25 level. Minor resistance come in at 2631.50-2633.75, however, much stronger resistance aligns multiple levels at the 2637.50 level and should provide a solid opportunity to sell the first test.
Resistance – 2631.50-2633.75*, 2637.50**, 2643*, 2648.25-2651.25**, 2666***, 2679-2685**, 2712****
Support – 2618-2619.25**, 2605-2607**, 2594.50-2596****, 2555.50-2565***
Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 57.62 but lost ground into the electronic close after API
Fundamentals: We all knew trading this week would be centered around this EIA report and rising U.S production. Yesterday’s API read put pressure on prices despite a draw of 5.481 mb in Crude. This is because of the massive surprise on Gasoline that saw a build of 9.196 mb when only 1.145 mb was expected. Adding further pressure was a build in Distillates of 4.259 mb when only about 500,000 was expected. Today’s EIA expectations call for -3.40 mb Crude, +1.741 mb Gasoline and +.967 mb Distillates. U.S production estimates have hit a record for four straight weeks and its likely that we see a fifth. Yesterday’s API data gave us a total build of almost 8 mb. With this deviating drastically from expectations, we must see one of two things a surprise build in Crude oil or a total build of nearly half of this in order for the EIA report to not become bullish because of the pendulum of perception.
Technicals: We remain bearish and price action is playing out this morning, testing into key support at the 56.75-56.94. We must see a settlement below here today and a failure to do so will begin to Neutralize our stance in the immediate term as it risks a rise into the weekend.
Resistance – 57.81-58.06**, 58.36*, 58.97***, 59.96***, 62.58**
Pivot – 57.56
Support – 56.75-56.94**, 56.54*, 55.95*, 55.00-55.25***
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1264.9, the lowest in the front month since August 8th the February since July 26th.
Fundamentals: A stronger Dollar yesterday weighed on Gold, but the lower price action was much, much more; this was a glimpse of the cleansing of longs. As we discussed here yesterday, there is the lack of a catalyst in Gold to take it out above the psychological $1300 mark just as there has been the lack of one to take it lower. Because of this, Gold has lost some interest. Despite all the potential reasons to spark safe have demand that we mentioned in the S&P section of this report, Gold remains at the lowest level in four months. We are long term bullish and there is not a better reason to spark buying than a sale. Gold traded lower yesterday despite disappointing reads on both U.S Trade Balance and ISM Non-Manufacturing. ADP Payroll are due at 7:15 am CT but the main event is Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll.
Technicals: Gold traded through the 200-day moving average and the recent lows of the February contract. However, the front-month lows at 1262.8 did the trick in slowing down the selling. Price action is consolidating but the bears remain in the clear drive’s seat until a close back above the 200-day moving average at 1277.1
Resistance – 1272.7-1273.1**, 1277.1-1278.6***, 1283.3**, 1287.5**, 1292-1292.5**, 1304.7***
Pivot – 1268.1
Support – 1262.8***, 1250.2**, 1214.5-1225***
Natural Gas (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2.914U
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s exacerbated selling has settled back in. With weather models showing uncertainty for the second half of December, bulls were pushed on their back-foot and jumped ship. The bears and algos then jumped on momentum. We remain long term bullish and maintain that prices below $3 present a great buying opportunity through the first half of February.
Technicals: With price action bottoming out yesterday, we will reintroduce our Bullish bias behind Neutral. Yesterday’s low of 2.875 came in just in front of support at the 2.847-2.861 level. Ultimately, we must see price action continue to consolidate back towards 2.981-2.996 in order to neutralize weakness. However, hanging at and below the 2.903-2.929 level will keep prices vulnerable to further waves of selling.
Resistance – 2.981-2.996***, 3.04-3.053**, 3.113-3.137**, 3.182**, 3.218-3.237**, 3.321-3.358****
Support – 2.903-2.929**, 2.847-2.861**, 2.753-2.7565***, 2.486-2.522****
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 124’11
Fundamentals: A combination of data misses and a weak equity market brought the buyers to the treasury market. ISM Non-Manufacturing missed and the U.S Trade Balance widened. The government will shut down after Friday if a budget is not reached and traders gear up for Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll and next week’s Fed rate hike. ADP Payrolls due today should be watched but ultimately the key driver in this market today will be global equity weakness.
Technicals: Price action is above resistance at the 124’145-124’155 level and the Russell 2000 small caps are 3% from the Sunday night high and the S&P is 1.5% from such. Furthermore the 10-year held major three-star support at 123’27 and if data continues to miss and equities remain weak we could see a move to major three-star resistance at 124’295-125 before the end of the week. The 21-day moving average comes in at 124’19 and a move out above here will put the 9-day on a path to cross out above. Support comes in at 124’065-124’095 and a close below here will signal a near term failure.
Resistance –124’22-124’24**, 124’295-125’00***
Pivot – 124’145-124’155
Support – 124’065-124’095**, 124’015**, 123’27***
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.