LEM8: -.70 at 105.60, trading in a range of 1.75
LEQ8: -1.125 at 103.35, trading in a range of 1.775
GFK8: -.65 at 137.075, trading in a range of 2.40
GFQ8: -1.15 at 142.575, trading in a range of 2.60
Cattle Commentary: Cattle futures started the day on firm footing but could not get enough momentum to get out above technical resistance. Though we remain optimistic that the board and cash will work together to shrink the basis, the charts are showing signs of caution (see technicals below). This is now the 11th out of the last 12 sessions that the market has traded 106; the moral of the story is take what the market gives you and remain nimble. On the cash side of things, there has not been a lot of new news to report. Today’s Fed Cattle Exchange was a skunk with zero sales on 2,456 offered; 122.25 was passed on. Most bids are at 122 with offers resting at 127. If the market does not get any cash news tomorrow, it is possible we see support come into the market Friday due to the anticipation for cash trade.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 230.96 / 208.95
Change from prior day: / .03 / (.98)
Choice/Select spread: / 22.01
Live Cattle (June)
Live cattle futures continued their sideways trade today after failing again to breakout above technical resistance. In yesterday’s report we listed first resistance as 107.10-107.825 (today’s high was 107.10), that barrier will remain intact for tomorrows session. If the bulls can chew through this pocket, we could start to see some momentum press us towards 109.05-109.90. That next leg higher is appearing to become less likely as the chart is softening up. First technical support for tomorrows session comes in from 103.825-104.50. A break and close below this pocket will accelerate the selling towards 101.20-101.85. If the selling starts to feed on itself, we would not count out a test to contract lows.
Resistance: 107.10-107.825***, 109.05-109.90****, 111.25-112.25****
Support: 103.825-104.50**, 101.20-101.85****, 96.35-97.075****
Feeder Cattle (August)
August feeder cattle continue to look weak, posting lower lows and lower highs so far for the week. As it stands, this puts the bears in control; only a conviction close back above 145.25-145.50 will neutralize the chart. This resistance pocket represents the 50-day moving average and the 50% retracement from the February highs to the April lows. On the flip side, first technical support tomorrow comes in at 141.675 but the more significant pocket comes in from 139.95-140.375. This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement level along with previously important price points.
Support: 141.675**, 139.95-140.375***, 134.975-135.00****
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)
June lean hogs gaped higher this morning but ended up trading both sides of unchanged for the session. June futures finished up .20 at 76.50, trading in a range of 1.425. The fact that the market was able to hold above 76.10-76.25 on a closing basis is relatively encouraging for the bull camp; the will want to see this hold through the end of the week. The first upside target for bulls comes in at 78.05 which represents the 50% retracement from the January highs to the April lows. A failure to hold support will likely lead to selling pressure down to support and a gap fill which comes in from 73.90-74.057.
Resistance: 78.05-78.70***, 79.60-79.90****
Support: 73.90-74.057****, 70.25-70.90***