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Yesterday’s Close: May corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 3 ½ cents, trading in a range of 6 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 12,500 contracts
Fundamentals: Short covering in wheat spilled over into support for the corn market in yesterday’s session, the bulls must see follow through before the weekend to feel comfortable about a near term bottom being in place. The market is softer in the early morning trade but the volume is light, so we are taking it with a grain of salt. Yesterday’s volume for the May contract was 70% greater than the previous day’s move to contract lows. Weather will continue to be a hot topic as we get closer to spring. There is also a USDA report at the end of the month.
Technicals: Relative to the strength in wheat, corn was mute. The market bumped up against resistance but ran out of conviction for a bigger move higher. That resistance pocket this morning comes in from 367 ½-370 ½, we believe that consecutive closes above this pocket would mark a near term bottom and spark a bigger round of short covering.
Resistance: 367 ½-370 ½***, 377-380***
Support: 360-361***, 350**
Yesterday’s Close: May soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 6 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 12 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Soybeans caught some relief on broad short covering in the grain markets. With little changed on the fundamental landscape, we would not be surprised to see the market consolidate near 900. Trade talk continues to be a point of interest, but it seems the market has grown tired of the forced optimism. NOPA crush will be out Friday morning, early estimates for that is near 158.75 million bushels.
Technicals: Yesterday’s bounce was a silver lining, but bulls need to see follow through before the weekend to have more conviction about it being a meaningful rally as opposed to a relief rally. The market pressed up against our first resistance pocket yesterday, we had defined that as 900-903. This pocket represents previous support, a key retracement, along with the psychologically significant 9.00 handle. Consecutive closes above this pocket could spur another round of buying.
Resistance: 900-903***, 909-913 ½**, 922 ¼-924 ¾***
Support: 884 ¾-887 ¾**, 870-873 ½***, 853****
Yesterday’s Close: May wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 24 ½ cents, trading in a range of 29 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 10,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures saw a healthy dose of short covering in yesterday’s session but have failed to find follow through buying in the overnight/early morning trade. We generally take the overnight session with a grain of salt as the volume is too thin to hang a hat on. Export sales tomorrow will be the big-ticket item for the remainder of the week.
Technicals: Yesterday’s wave of short covering brought the RSI back above oversold conditions for the first time in 11 sessions. Higher volatility markets create a more emotional trade, so the technicals are a lot less clear cut in this type of environment. First resistance today comes in from 457. The more significant level above the market comes in from 472 ¼-475. This pocket represents the lows on February 25th and a key Fibonacci retracement. On the support side of things, 434 ¼-441 ¾ is a must hold pocket for the bulls.
Resistance: 457**, 464**, 472 ¼-475****
Support: 434 ¼-441 ¾**, 425-427**
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