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Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 56.87, up 0.08
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is higher this morning after yesterday’s private API survey reported a surprise draw of 2.6 mb of Crude. Further supporting the tape was a larger draw than expected in Gasoline, coming in at -5.8 mb. This added a tailwind to an already strong tape due to the seasonals, Saudi Arabia announcing exports and production cuts as well as a robust risk-environment this week. The official EIA data is due at 9:30 am CT and expectations are for +2.655 mb of Crude, -2.532 mb of Gasoline and -1.858 mb of Distillates. Traders also want to keep an eye on the estimated production figures which may flat-line at a record just above 12 mbpd. However, Baker Hughes has reported a drop in rigs for the last three weeks as the number has fallen 53 from its high in November. It will be bullish if the data shows any signs of this correlating into dissipating production.
Technicals: Although Crude Oil has not broken out above major three-star resistance, it has done nothing wrong on the run. Pullbacks have held the pivot of 56.43-56.60 in order to confirm the bulls have an edge, this is now first key support. Given that the market has not broken out coupled with the risk of the impending data and the fundamental bar set by last night’s API report, we must neutralize our Bias just a bit although we remain favorable on this price action.
Resistance: 57.05-57.35***, 57.69-57.88*, 58.16-58.35**, 59.63***
Support: 56.43-56.60**, 55.44-55.75***, 54.71-54.76***, 53.51-53.98***
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