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Last Week’s Close: May corn futures were 3 ½ cents lower on the week, this after trading in a range of 7 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought 31,540 futures contracts, this extends their net long position to 169,785 futures. Keep in mind that this data is compiled from April 3rd-April 10th.
Fundamentals: Corn prices opened the Sunday night session under pressure despite snow moving through parts of the corn belt and the possibility for more throughout the week. This wintery weather in April has some producers sitting on their hands at a time where they would typically be getting some field work done. There will be delays in getting out of the blocks, but the market seems to have much of that priced in at the moment. Planting progress will be released after the close today, that is expected to come in at 5% complete.
Technicals: May corn has made itself back towards our technical support pocket which we had defined last week as 379 ¾-382 ¾. This pocket represents recent lows, the 50-day moving average, and a key Fibonacci retracement level. We continue to believe that this pocket represents a buying opportunity on the first test. A failure to hold support could encourage some long liquidation from the funds. On the resistance side of things, there’s not a whole lot in the way until 391 ¾-395 ¼. This not only represents the top end of the recent range, but also the 50% retracement from the July highs to the January lows.
Resistance: 391 ¾-395 ¼***, 400 ¾**, 413 ¼-415***, 430****
Support: 379 ¾-382 ¾***, 369 ¼-371 ¾****, 364 ¼-365 ¼***
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.