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Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72.35, up 0.98
Fundamentals: After turning higher in the second half of yesterday’s session, Crude has again traded to the highest level since November 2014. The overnight high comes in at 72.78 and price action remains elevated against here as inventory expectations begin to trickle in ahead of API’s private survey later today and the official EIA data tomorrow. Supply concerns remain front and center with reduced output from Venezuela and the potential removal of Iranian supply from the market boosting prices ahead of what could be a seasonally bullish inventory read. An upbeat global environment after the U.S and China called off the trade war “for now” has aided this path of least resistance. A wild card for bullish support is if the U.S Dollar weakens from here, boosting commodities priced in Dollars.
Technicals: We maintain a Bullish Bias on Crude Oil but must exude caution at these levels and as inventories come into the picture. The bullish reality is though that the Commitment of Traders has shown a reduction in the net-long position for four straight weeks while the price of Crude has held the $70 mark; this tells us that there is room for fresh buying. Yesterday settled right at our 72.35 level, a continue close above here is bullish.
Resistance: 72.35****, 76.50***, 80.00****
Support: 71.22-71.23**, 70.23-70.53**, 69.97***
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