E-mini S&P (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2791.50, unchanged
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks sit marginally in the red while trading in a tight range as there has been a lack of fresh catalysts to invigorate either the bulls or bears in the last 24 hours. Yesterday, the data was better than anticipated, headlined by U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing. However, the broader theme hasn’t changed, and the OECD lowered their global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.2% to 3.3%. They cited the headwinds due to trade tensions and dissipating confidence levels. Despite such, China posted another strong session overnight; the Shanghai Composite has gained 18% over the last month as investors look to a small glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel on trade. Elsewhere, the British Pound has lost some ground on Brexit uncertainties. Overall, the sea is quiet, and ADP Payrolls came in at 183k versus 189k expected. Trade Balance data is due at 7:30 am CT. The Bank of Canada meets at 9:00 am CT. NY Fed President Williams, a 2019 voter, and Cleveland Fed Mester, an alternate, each speak at 11:00 am CT. The closely watched Fed Beige Book is released at 1:00 pm CT. Traders should keep a close eye on some of the individual components today as strength in Facebook and Google yesterday, who gained 2.32% and 1.37% respectively, kept potential broader weakness from gaining traction.
Technicals: First key support at 2783-2784.75 kept the only true wave of selling through yesterday’s session in check. However, the longer price action remains suppressed below our pivot, there is an open invitation for this level to be violated. We find this to be a similar case with our pivot in the NQ at 7156-7169, a level in which yesterday’s stronger tech sector remained tethered to for much of the session. This morning, our near-term momentum indicators align with our pivot levels which confirms that the bears have an opportunity early.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 2805-2807.75**, 2814-2819***, 2424.25**, 2431.50-2431.75***
Pivot: 2791.50-2793.50
Support: 2783-2784.75**, 2775**, 2762-2766.50***, 2750.25-2751.75**, 2729-2737.75***
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