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Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 4 cents, trading in a range of 5 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 9,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: There has not been a lot of new news on the wires over the past 24 hours which led to a slow bleed lower, carrying over into the early morning trade. Crop tours continue on and in most cases the results are confirming what the USDA had projected two weeks ago, a big crop. The Pro Farmer tour has their Nebraska yield coming in a hair over 179 bushels/acre, well above last year’s 165.4 bushels/acre.
Technicals: We want to be friendly this market, but we have not been able to find a compelling reason recently from the fundamental or technical perspective. The fail to breakout above our resistance pocket from 380 ½-382 ½ has confirmed our bearish leaning bias. The market has broken down below first support at 374 which opens the door for a run at 366 ¼-369.
Resistance: 380 ½-382 ½***, 388 ½-389 ¾****, 393-395 ¼ **
Support: 374**, 366¼-369***, 349-352 ¼****
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 8 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 10 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: The fundamental picture has not changed much over the last 24 hours. Continue disruptions with Chinese trade coupled with a big crop has kept a lid on rally attempts. Expect trade headlines to come and go and come and go again; this will keep volatility alive which will provide great short-term opportunities for both the bulls and the bears. Brazilian bean acres are also expected to increase again this year which shouldn’t come as a shock as demand for their product continues to grow.
Technicals: As with corn, we want to be friendly this market, but we have not been able to find a compelling reason recently from the fundamental or technical perspective. The markets inability to sustain momentum above the psychologically significant $9.00 handle has want to be bullish traders thinking twice. The market has now retreated to our first support pocket which we have had defined as 880 ¾-882. A break and close below opens the door for a run at 860 ¼-866.
Resistance: 899-901**, 914 ¼-915 ¾***, 922 ¼***, 943 ½****
Support: 880 ¾- 882***, 860 ¼-866****, 849-851 ¼***
Yesterday’s Close: December wheat futures finished the day down 14 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 18 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: The bulls have found it difficult to find new bullish news to propel the market higher, which has led to long liquidation from the funds. As mentioned over the last few weeks, the headlines of hot and dry weather in places like Europe, Australia, and the Black Sea have run their course. The market will need to see Russian exports get ratcheted back to put a floor in this market, we don’t expect to see this happening near term.
Technicals: The market is now testing our 4-star support pocket which we have had defined as 539 ½-540 ½. This is the spot for the bears to reduce some exposure. Don’t confuse that with a place we are recommending buying. A break and close below this pocket could be the knock out punch to the bulls, leading to an acceleration in long liquidation. The next support comes in from 522 ½-523 ½, but we would not be surprised to see prices fall further than that.
Resistance: 555-557 ¾**, 578 ¾-582 ¾****, 595 ½-600***
Support: 539 ½-540 ½****, 522 ¼-523 ½***, 499-501 ¼**
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