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Cattle Commentary: Cattle futures came out of the gate on rocky ground but managed to stabilize through the mid-morning/afternoon session. April futures finished the day up 1.025 at 123.20, trading in a range of 1.575. March feeders closed the session up 1.225 at 144.90, trading in a range of 2.65. Today’s bounce was well received by the bull camp, but they still have a lot of work to do in the wake of the technical damage done over the last two weeks (See technicals below). The bulk of last weeks cash trade came in at 126, it will be interesting to see where things develop this week as we have seen mixed calls to start the week. Boxed beef continued to inch higher on the day.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 223.23 / 214.84
Change from prior day: /.71 / .20
Choice/Select spread: / 8.39
Live Cattle (April)
April live cattle started the day relatively mute but found some buying interest as we got closer to the noon hour. The ability to reclaim 122.55 on a closing basis today is certainly a start, but the bulls still have some work to do before feeling too comfortable. On RFD-TV this morning we discussed first resistance coming in from 123.40-123.80 this pocket represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, indicators that had previously been supportive. If the bulls can chew through this pocket, we would expect to see a continuation towards 125.45-125.675. On the flip side, a failure to breakout above first resistance would likely encourage a round of long liquidation towards 120.00-120.25.
Resistance: 123.40-123.80**, 125.45-125.675***, 127.20-127.95**
Support: 122.05-122.55***, 120.00-120.25**, 117.90-118.05****
Feeder Cattle (March)
March feeder cattle opened lower, tripping stops resting just below Friday’s low before attracting value buyers. The bulls managed to not only hold ground above 143.50 on the close but managed to close above 144.60 which represents the 200-day moving average, an indicator that has previously been used as support. As with the fat cattle bulls, the feeder bulls have their work cut out for them on the chart. They need to see prices back above 146.45-146.85 to encourage additionally buying toward the top end of the recent range. If the bulls fail to get footing in the first half of the week, we could see pressure come back into the market.
Resistance: 146.45-146.85***, 147.525-148**, 149.40 150.90****, 153.95-154.05****
Support: 143.50-144.30****, 142.425-142.75**, 139.85-140.30***
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (April)
Lean hog futures managed to gain ground today, but we would take this move with a grain of salt as rallies have recently been used as selling opportunities. April futures finished the day up 1.175 at 68.75, trading in a range of 1.45. First technical resistance for tomorrows session comes in from 69.50-69.80; this pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement as well as the gap lower left from the 28th of last month. We would expect to see the volatility continue in the near term, creating a choppy trading environment making it hard for both the bulls and the bears to get a handle on shorter term trade set ups.
Resistance: 69.50-69.80***, 71.15-71.35**, 72.60-73.15****
Support: 67.90-68.00**, 66.875**, 64.85-65.05***, 63.50-63.75**
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