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March Crude Oil futures
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 53.10, up 0.69
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is higher this morning on what appears to be a more favorable broad risk landscape. Also supporting the tape is a less-bearish API report than expected yesterday after the bell. After such heavy builds over the last 60 days, a minor drawdown is not truly bullish. Last night’s API showed -0.998 mb Crude, +0.746 Gasoline, -2.481 mb Distillates and -0.502 mb at Cushing. Today’s EIA expectations are for +2.668 mb Crude, +0.826 mb Gasoline and -1.142 mb Distillates. If the EIA data is simply in line with these expectations, we expect Crude to trade lower. The Dollar Index is stronger after a firm CPI read this morning, but this is being offset by a stronger Chinese Yuan.
Technicals: Resistance at 54.02 as proven to be a ceiling ahead of today’s inventory data. We will reintroduce a minor Bearish Bias as we continue to believe rips are selling opportunities. Traders want to understand today’s data before pulling the trigger on any rip. A close below major three-star support at 52.95-52.99 would encourage additional selling.
Resistance: 54.02**, 54.63-54.68**, 55.51-55.55***
Support: 52.95-52.99***, 52.58-52.64**, 52.30*, 51.05-51.33**, 50.63-50.84***
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