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E-mini S&P (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2771.50, down 20.00
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks slipped again yesterday before quietly trading lower in the overnight. Still, our major three-star support level has held this extremely healthy pullback in check (detailed in the ‘Technical’ section below). The tape has shifted into the green after the ECB turned fully dovish by reintroducing the long-term financing program known as TLTRO. With hints of such in the weeks leading up to this meeting, it is still a surprise that they caved so quickly with some of the economic indicators showing signs of turning a corner. Heading into Q4 2018, it was projected that the ECB will hike rates for the first time in the autumn of 2019, instead fresh stimulus measures will now be introduced in September. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 7:30 am CT.
From the U.S, we look to weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs all released at 7:30 am CT. Fed Governor Brainard speaks at 11:15 am CT.
Technicals: We continue to hold a minor Bearish Bias; while we believe the market is over-extended, with potentially a fourth failure above 2800 budding, shorts must capitalize on these downswings. Major three-star support in both the S&P and NQ has held beautifully at 2762-2766.50 and 7074.50-7085 ahead of this morning’s ramp. These levels, more than ever, are a line in the sand and a decisive move below here should open the door for another 1% at a minimum. The direr question this morning is where the resistance is now. The S&P will certainly be more important than the NQ and we have major three-star resistance at 2783; a move out above this level will negate yesterday’s weakness and invite the bulls back to the table. Until such a move out above here, this is a level in which buyers against major three-star support must capitalize and shorts can look to fade.
Resistance: 2783***, 2790.50-2791.50**, 2797.50**, 2805-2807.75**, 2814-2819***
Support: 2762-2766.50***, 2750.25-2751.75**, 2729-2737.75***
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