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Yesterday’s Close: May corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 3 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 6 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 9,500 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: There seemed to be a buyers strike yesterday, leading to weakness and risk reduction ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report. U.S. carryout estimates range from 1.680-1.795 billion bushels, last month was 1.735. World carryout estimates range from 306.30-312.00mmt, last month was 309.78. The averages of these estimates are little changed from the February report. Though it will be new news for the markets, we are not expecting it to have a significant impact. Export sales this morning came in at 970,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations.
Technicals: Yesterday’s price action was not what the bulls wanted to see. Not only did prices fail at our resistance pocket from 377-380, but they are now threatening to break down below support. Lower highs are often followed up by lower lows in a trending market. If the bulls cannot defend support to round out the week, there is risk of new contract lows. We want to be bullish on prices but the chart is keeping our bias honest, set at neutral.
Resistance: 377-380***, 385 ¾-387 ¾***
Pivot: 372 ¼-373 ½
Support: 363 ¼****
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