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Last Week’s Close: Wheat futures finished Friday’s session up ½ of a cent, narrowly trimming losses for the week to 18 ¾ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed funds with a net short futures and options position of 72,449 contracts.
Fundamentals: Friday’s USDA report showed U.S. ending stocks at 1.055 billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 1.020 billion bushels. World ending stocks came in at 270.53, this was above the average trade estimate of 267.47. We saw good exports last week; the bulls will want to see that develop into a trend and not just a one off.
Technicals: We have wanted to be friendlier on the wheat market, but the chart has given us no confirmation, so our bias remains neutral. If we start to see consecutive closes above resistance from 447 ¼-450, this would entice us and perhaps encourage a short covering rally.
Resistance: 447 ¼-450**, 463 ¾-466 ½***
Support: 434 ¼-437 ½**, 430*
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. DAW Trading (“DAW”) uses various outside sources for research material regarding futures and options on futures trading therefore the views and opinions expressed in this letter may not necessarily reflect the view of DAW or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to DAW.