Wheat (May)
Last Week’s Close: Wheat futures finished Friday’s session up ½ of a cent, narrowly trimming losses for the week to 18 ¾ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed funds with a net short futures and options position of 72,449 contracts.
Fundamentals: Friday’s USDA report showed U.S. ending stocks at 1.055 billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 1.020 billion bushels. World ending stocks came in at 270.53, this was above the average trade estimate of 267.47. We saw good exports last week; the bulls will want to see that develop into a trend and not just a one off.
Technicals: We have wanted to be friendlier on the wheat market, but the chart has given us no confirmation, so our bias remains neutral. If we start to see consecutive closes above resistance from 447 ¼-450, this would entice us and perhaps encourage a short covering rally.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 447 ¼-450**, 463 ¾-466 ½***
Support: 434 ¼-437 ½**, 430*
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