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Yesterday’s Close: July soybeans finished the session up 24 ¾ cents, this after trading in a range of 15 ½ cents (gap higher Sunday night). Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 10,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Positive news on trade kept a bid in the market to start the week, but we are taking it with a grain of salt as there has been little to no clarity on what was actually agreed upon. This will be something to keep a very close eye on going forward as it will likely have the biggest price implications. Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report from the USDA showed that the soybean crop is now 56% planted, this compares to the 5-year average of 44%. 26% of the crop is estimated to be emerged, this compares to the 5-year average of 15%. Export inspections came in at 893,680 metric tons, this was also supportive to price to start the week.
Technicals: The market has pressed itself up against our key technical resistance pocket which we have had outlined as 1026 ½-1028 ¼. This pocket represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) for the year, along with the 100-day moving average and previously important price points. If the bulls can see follow through and breakout above this pocket, we could see the market run towards 1038-1042 ½. With that said, a failure will mark lower highs which could lead us to a gap fill and lower lows.
Resistance: 1026 ½-1028 ¼***, 1040-1042 ½**
Support: 1013-1016**, 988 ¾-994 ¾****, 965 ¼-969 ½***
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