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Yesterday’s Close: July soybean futures finished the session down 10 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 16 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 470,817 metric tons. The expectations ranged from 300,000-600,000. Last week’s export inspections number came in at 446,000 metric tons. Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed that soybeans are 2% planted in the states. Last year at this time we were 5% complete. Weather continues to be a major headline, but we are still early enough in the season that we are not putting a lot of weight into it. The bulls need to see some sales this week outside of the weekly Thursday report.
Technicals: Friday’s bearish close spilled over into the floor open yesterday which has pressed prices near their next level of support. Significant support comes in from 1025 ¾-1027 ¾. This pocket represents the 100-day moving average, previous support in March, and the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the January 12th lows to the March 2nd highs. We believe that this pocket would be a good opportunity for shorts to cover something. If you want to be long the market, this is a spot to try and buy on the first test, looking for a relief rally “pop”. Previous support now becomes resistance, we see that at 1042 ½.
Resistance: 1042 ½**, 1050***, 1060 ¾-1064 ½**, 1077-1078***
Support: 1025 ¾-1027 ¾***, 1013-1016***, 988 ¾-994 ¾****
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