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Last Week’s Close: May soybean futures traded 17 ¾ cents higher last week, this after trading in a range of 29 ¾ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds were net sellers of 2,890 futures, this puts their net long position right at 169,539 (identical to corn). Keep I mind that this data is compiled from April 3rd- April 10th.
Fundamentals: If we start to see delays in corn planting extend, we could start to see some acres shift from corn to beans. It is still too early to suggest that is a probability, but it is certainly a possibility at this point in time and should be noted. Harvest in Brazil is starting to pick up, they are estimated to be 25% complete. We have the NOPA crush report this morning; expectations are for 164.15-176.20 million bushels, with the average estimate being 168.247 million bushels. We will continue to keep a close eye on the soybean meal market, as it could be a catalyst in price action.
Technicals: May soybeans gave up some gains on Friday but made strides on the week. We started shifting our near-term bias last week from bearish to bullish on this price action. The market is relatively quiet in the early morning trade so the floor open will be key in setting the tone. First support this morning comes in from 1047 ¼-1052 ¾, a close below this pocket would shift our bias. If the bulls can defend this support pocket, we would expect to see a run towards 1079 ¼-1082 ½.
Resistance: 1079 ¼-1082 ½***, 1097 ¾-1102 ¼**
Support: 1047 ¼-1052 ¾***, 1030 ¾-1034 ¼**, 1012-1019 ¼***
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