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Last Week’s Close: May wheat futures traded 2 cents lower last week, this after trading in a range of 24 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds were buyers of 27,102 futures contracts. This shrinks their net short position down to 44,861 futures. Keep in mind that this data is compiled from April 3rd- April 10th.
Fundamentals: Winter weather over the weekend was not enough to offset the prospect for better weather conditions this week. Rains are working their way into the forecast for areas that need it badly, this has put pressure on futures to start the week. If they do materialize it is possible that we see extended pressure throughout the week. We will continue to keep a close eye on the KC wheat contract as it will likely continue to be the leader.
Technicals: The gap lower on the Sunday night open was not the most encouraging sign for the bull camp, but that could change when we see more volume come in on the floor open. The bulls want to reclaim 467 ¾-472 ¾ on a closing basis. This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement level, a previous gap, and the 50-day moving average; we had also defined this as key support to end last week’s trade. A failure to gain back ground could open the door for a run back towards 457 ¾-461 ¾.
Resistance: 472 ¾ **, 483-484 ¾**, 493-495**, 516 ¾-518 ½**
Pivot: 467 ¾
Support: 457 ¾-461 ¾***, 450 ¼**, 440-443 ½**
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