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Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished the session down 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 11 cents for the day. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s export inspections came in at 619,251 metric tons, this was above expectations of 350,000-550,000 metric tons. Last week’s export inspections report came in at 505,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that winter wheat’s good/excellent rating came in at 31%, market participants were expecting to see an increase to 32% good/excellent. Weather will continue to be monitored very closely going forward. We are also keeping tabs on the US dollar which appears to be on the verge of a breakout. If the dollar continues to gain strength, we could see that pressure commodities.
Technicals: Wheat futures are trading below technical support this morning which has the bulls back on the edge of their seat. Lower highs and lower lows have been the trend over the last two weeks, and it looks like that is continuing. If the market cannot find buyers on the floor open, we would expect to see the market make a run back towards 459-461 ¾. This pocket represents previous support, along with a key Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance: 486-488 ½****, 494-496 ¾***, 508 ½-510 ½**
Support: 472 ¾-475 ¼***, 459-461 ¾****, 440 ¼**
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