March Crude Oil Futures
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 53.66, down 0.90 Fundamentals: Crude Oil did not move much after the API report yesterday but did extend its range lower early this morning. The official EIA data is due at 9:30 am CT and will be front and center. First, API showed builds across the board; +2.514 mb Crude, +1.731 mb Gasoline, +1.41 mb Distillates and +0.889 mb at Cushing. This was largely in line with the expectations for EIA today; +2.179 mb Crude, +1.601 mb Gasoline and -1.814 mb Distillates. Two things that have stood out recently are draws at Cushing and falling imports. After inventories at Cushing drew for 15 of 16 weeks, they have decreased over the last three. However, a large build today that offsets the three-week run of -1.078 would weigh on the market. Last week, imports fell 1.1 mb as Saudi Arabia promised to cut exports to the U.S; this number will be crucial as it feed it to the broad report. Lastly, as always estimated production must be watched closely. Technicals: First key support at 53.01-53.37 continues to be a line in the sand that keeps this recent uptrend intact. Last night’s brief low was 52.86 before quickly recovering. Below here is a trend line that comes in at 51.90 and then recent lows at 51.33. One thing to note is that the 50-day moving average has finally rounded out and rose for the first time on today’s session since peaking in November. The continuous and March 50-day moving averages align with a crucial retracement at 50.63 to bring major three-star support. Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 54.26-54.52**, 55.51-55.55*** Support: 53.01-53.37**, 51.90**, 51.33**, 50.63-51.01***
April Gold Futures trading
Session close: Settled at 1319.2, down 0.1 Fundamentals: Gold continues to consolidate in a very healthy manner. The Dollar Index ticked down, paring some overnight gains, after Q4 Nonfarm Productivity missed expectations and Trade Balance was a little better than expected. The overall movement for the metal remains quiet, as we noted on Monday, with much of Asia on holiday. Tonight’s calendar should bring some life to the tape with Fed Governor Quarles speaking at 5:05 pm CT and a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 6:00 pm CT. Technicals: Overhead resistance at 1321.7-1323.4 continues to be a burden for the bulls, however, a move and close back above here will reinvigorate the tape and encourage buyers to come back to the table. Until then, we do trust support at 1312.1, this provided a great buy opportunity for a trade already this week. Still, traders must be prepared to see a test to major three-star support at 1306.3-1306.5. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 1321.7-1323.4**, 1337** Support: 1312.1**, 1306.3-1306.5***, 1300.5**, 1281.5-1284.5***